Cut to the Chase...the Sprint Cup version

We'll know tonight. The 12 participants in 2009's Sprint Cup Chase will be known after tonight's Chevy Rock 'n' Roll 400 in Richmond, Virginia.

There are four spots already reserved for Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Denny Hamlin. The other eight are up in the air but it's that final spot that should provide the most of this evening's excitement. Three drivers, one spot.

Matt Kenseth is currently in the 12th and final spot. Kenseth started off this year by winning the first two races (Daytona 500/Daytona and Auto Club 500/California). Not so much since then. His best finish is a 4th at the Autism Speaks 400 at Dover. But Kenseth has shown tenacity in the last two races by overcoming cars that were either beat up or handling poorly. Pretty simple for the #17 DeWalt team: win and you're in. Kenseth starts 28th tonight with an average finish of 16.7 at Richmond. Among the tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit, Richmond is by far a favorite of Matt's.

Brain Vickers is only 20 points behind Kenseth. The #83 Red Bull team has made up significant ground in the last two months. Vickers posted his only win of the season at the Carfax 400 in Michigan. Since a 35th place finish in New Hampshire, Vickers has finished in the top ten in 6 of eight races. You could say that he's on a hot streak...and he needs to keep it going if he wants to overtake Kenseth. If Vickers were to win, Kenseth would have to finish no better than 4th in order to pass Kenseth in the standings. Vickers will be starting from the 6th position tonight but has had an abysmal average finish of 27.8.

Kyle Busch trails Kenseth by 37 points and Vickers by 17. If Busch were to win tonight (he won the race in the spring), Vickers would have to finish no better than 4th and Kenseth no better than 7th. There's possibly a bizarre scenario (which would take an hour to explain) where Busch wins and still doesn't make the chase. But this is Rowdy's best track as far as performance. The same cannot be said for Vickers and Kenseth. The #18 M&M's car will be starting 8th with an average finish of 6.1.

So if you look at it from just a statistical standpoint, Kyle Busch will just barely squeak into the Chase ahead of Matt Kenseth...by a mere 1 point.

As has been the case over the last few years, the Chevy Rock 'n' Roll 400 will deliver and show why those that are not NASCAR fans why they should be.