NLCS Preview - Phillies/Dodgers

 v

The NLCS starts on Thursday night at 8:07. Let's look at the teams and see what the series will hold for baseball fans.

Season series: Dodgers won, 4-3. Can't really get a whole lot out of this, except maybe the fact that the Dodgers won 2 of 3 in Philly and split 2-2 in L.A. No real home field advantage for the Dodgers.

First base: Ryan Howard (PHI) v James Loney (LAD)
Howard showed that he is an offensive force, but Loney is a bit better with the glove. In fact, 2009 was Loney's best defensive season since he became the full time 1B. Still, Howard will change a game with one mammoth swing while Loney lacks the power.
Advantage: Phillies

Second base: Chase Utley (PHI) v Ronnie Belliard/Orlando Hudson (LAD)
Utley's bat is one of the more feared bats in the NL. Playing potentially more games in Los Angeles falls into his benefit because Utley hits 23 points higher on the road (.270 at home/.293 on the road). That's weird considering "The Bank" (Citizens Bank Park in Philly) is considered a hitters park. If the NLDS is any indication, Belliard will most likely get more playing time. He's been the better hitter, but Hudson has won a Gold Glove and defense may be more of a commodity for Dodgers to advance.
Advantage: Phillies

Third base: Pedro Feliz (PHI) v Casey Blake (LAD)
Not a glamorous matchup here, but a very important one for both teams. Feliz is not asked to do much offensively because of all the other power bats the Phillies have. He just mans third, gets a hit here and there, and drives in a run or two. Blake is more relied on by his team for his bat to the point where on occasion he's hit clean up. Blake's hitting .320 against lefties. Feliz is hitting .208 against the southpaws.
Advantage: Dodgers

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins (PHI) v Rafael Furcal (LAD)
We've heard so much talk of Rollins not being the same player as his MVP season of 2007. He's not the same player, granted, but Rollins still is a leader on the Phillies. Compare his 2009 stats to that of Furcal. The only stat where Furcal has the advantage is in batting average, and I'm including fileding percentage.
Advantage: Phillies

Left field: Raul Ibanez (PHI) v Manny Ramirez (LAD)
At the beginning of the season, Ibanez was well on his way to being a viable MVP candidate. A stint on the DL curbed that, but Raul put together is best offensvie season of his career. Manny put together a 50 game suspension for violating the league's drug policy. And he wasn't the same Manny after returning.
Advantage: Phillies

Center field: Shane Victorino (PHI) v Matt Kemp (LAD)
A push? Almost. These are the two best fielding center fielders in the NL. The difference is with the stick. Kemp has more a of tendency to go deep. Believe it or not, Kemp also had more stolen bases.
Advantage: Dodgers

Right field: Jayson Werth (PHI) v Andre Ethier (LAD)
Name one ML team that wouldn't love to have either of these guys in right field. You can't really. They both hit for power and deliver clutch hits.
Advantage: Push

Catcher: Carlos Ruiz (PHI) v Russell Martin (LAD)
Both Ruiz and Martin are great defensively and can regularly throw out potential thefts on the base paths. It all comes down to the bat. Last year, Martin had the clear cut advantage. This year, not so much. Despite playing in 36 less games, Ruiz had more homers (9 to 7) and only 10 less RBI (43 to 53). Ruiz doesn't strikeout as often either, and he's been hitting in the postseason while Martin is still struggling.
Advantage: Phillies

Starting pitching:
Neither manager has announced any type of a rotation as of this post, but here's what I know. The Phillies will most likley go with Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton and maybe J.A. Happ. I anticipate L.A. to keep the same three (Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla) and throw in possibly Hiroki Kuroda if he can go. If not, then Chad Billingsley is a potential 4th starter. You look at the names and it seems like a runaway for the Phillies. Not so fast. The Dodgers starters had the best ERA during the regular season. Those guys can flat out pitch.
Advantage: Push

Bullpen:
Both teams sport a lefty specialist (Scott Eyre for PHI and Hong-Chih Kuo for LAD). But where the Dodgers are better suited in the pen is George Sherrill. He's closed before with success. Add this: the Dodgers have the league's best pen, too.
Advantage: Dodgers

Closer: Brad Lidge (PHI) v Jonathon Broxton (LAD)
This season has been a chronicle for Lidge. Last year, he was perfect. This year, he had a ton of blown saves. But keep this in mind. Lidge didn't struggle in the NLDS against the Rockies. He almost resembled the Lidge of '08 in the clincher displaying his nasty slider. Broxton works on the other end of the spectrum. Hw throws heat and dares you to think about swinging at a 100mph pitch. Lidge has been here before, so that closes the gap.
Advantage: Dodgers

Bench:
The Phillies have the "professional hitter", Matt Stairs. The Dodgers can now match that with Jim Thome. The Phillies have a great pinch hitter in Greg Dobbs. The Dodgers can counter with Mark Loretta. Philly has Ben Francisco to be a defensive replacement in the outfield. L.A. has their "glue" in Juan Pierre.
Advantage: Dodgers

If you go down the positions (according to my breakdown), it's even. The tie breaker: managers. I know the Phillies won with Charlie Manuel last year, but I have to go with Joe Torre. There's not a situation he hasn't seen. Put this tidbit in your rolodex: Torre has said he most likely will not return as the Dodger skipper following next season. Makes you wonder if the motivational mind of Torre isn't already at work.

Dodgers in 6 for me.