Eagles and Cowboys - Round 3

In what many term the "ugliest rivalry in the NFL", the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys resume that this evening in a Wild Card playoff game at Jerry's Playpen.

Before we delve too deep into that game, if you wish to catch a view of the New York Jets/Cincinnati Bengals matchup, click here.

You hear said every year that it's hard to best a team three times. Not true. It has happened 19 times leading up to tonight's game. On 12 occassions, the team that won the first two games, also won the third. In this day and age of the extreme usage of stats, that's a telling one.

The game.

Philadelphia: These guys almost looked like they didn't care to really be in a gae last week. I found that surprising considering if the Eagles had won, tis game would be in Philly instead of Dallas, or the Funhouse of Jerry. Does it really matter? Not if the Eagles show up.

The major conern I have with the Philly offense is that they may be geared a bit too much for the big play. The Eagles only averaged 24 rushing attempts per game during the regular season while they averaged 34.6 pass attempts a game. That translated into a time of possession of 28:14, 28th in the league. If you've watched the Eagles play this season, you know they are without a doubt a pass-first offense. And head coach Andy Reid wouldn't have it any other way. That shouldn't be a major issue tonight considering where the game is being played, but a lack of balance could present difficulties for Philly.

Wide receiver DeSean Jackson has been pointed as the "X factor" when Philly has the ball, but I'm looking to two others, WR Jeremy Maclin and TE Brent Celek (left). Maclin and Celek both have to find the creases and seams in the Cowboys defense to take pressure off Jackson and QB Donanvan McNabb. If either of them can establish a position on the field, that should enable Jackson to get open. Plus, it's not so bad to utilize Maclin's speed and/or Celek's presence. The Cowboys TE Jason Witten may be going to the Pro Bowl as a backup to Vernon Davis, but Celek should be there.

There's been something missing with the Eagles defense more than just Jim Johnson and Brian Dawkins. The Eagles have been ravished with injuries to the linebacking unit the whole season, but new DC Sean McDermott has done a very good job with all the adversity. The one thing that can be hard to defend is a truly balanced offense, and Dallas has just that.

For Philly, the defensive line must produce pressure on Cowboys QB Tony Romo. They must rattle his confidence because Romo's cofidence has to be at a career high. If McDermott can dial up a scheme that shatter Romo's confidence, Romo jusy may revert to his past December and playoff self we're used to seeing. Eagles DE Trent Cole will be the guy to watch.

One last bit of info. The Eagles finished 2nd in turnover ratio with a +15. Romo, playoffs, turnovers. Get the picture.

And on the Dallas side...

Dallas: RBs Marion Barber (right) and Felix Jones may get their yards in this game. They must in order to keep the Philly defense honest. The Cowboys offense has evolved into the 2nd best unit in the NFL during the regular season, 6th in passing and 7th in rushing. They have great balance, but one thing does concern me, QB Tony Romo. I know he's played lights out in December. To me, he was the NFC's offensive player of the month, but when will he get that playoff win? Could be tonght, if his ever growing confidence is maintained.

Romo has enough offensive support, but see if the Cowboys O line can protect him. If Romo is presented ample time in the pocket in passing situations, the Cowboys should easily win. Same is true when Dallas runs the ball. If holes are created for Barber and Jones, the Cowboys should win.

Romo's buddy TE Jason Witten is not, repeat, not the offensive X-factor. That falls to (gulp) WR Roy Williams. We know the Eagles corners will try to smother WR Miles Austin. That means Williams must earn his keep as the #2, yes #2 option at the receiver position. If Williams can have a stat line like this: 5 receptions, 80 yards, TD and no drops, Dallas should win.

Has head coach Wade Phillips (left) developed a great defense in Dallas? Good enough to be 9th overall in the regular season. They stared out a bit slow, but once the guys got a firm grasp on Phillips' gameplan, this unit took off. One stat that cannot be ignored is third down conversions on defense. Dallas has the fifth best at only 35%.

One reason the D gets overlooked in big D is the lack of a big name, outside of LB DeMarcus Ware. And if you overlook LB Anthony Spencer, you're going to regret it. Spencer creates havoc away from Ware and that's where the Cowboys defense gets you. And even if you can somehow contain Ware and Spencer, NT Jay Ratliff emerges. If Dallas can pressure McNabb, the Cowboys should win.

The real X-factor on defense is the Cowboys CBs Terrence Newman and Mike Jenkins. They must perform in shutting down the Eagles WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin as they did an excellent job last week and in the other matchup of these teams. If the Cowboys corners can control the Eagles speed, the Cowboys should win.

I know I said "the Cowboys should win" or "Dallas should win" a lot. That's because I think Dallas will win. 27-21.