Something about a 'Golden Horseshoe'

We're only three races into the NASCAR Sprint Cup season and Jimmie Johnson has already scored two victories. Familiar tune, isn't it?

One offseason topic was the domination of the #48 team and if that domination hurting NASCAR. I bring this up because of a comment Kevin Harvick (left) made after the race in Fontana in which Johnson received a stroke of luck.

Johnson was in the middle of a pit stop when the caution flag was waved. As the pace car was leading the drivers around, Johnson emerged from the pits, crossing that infamous white line, and avoiding going a lap down.

Oh, Harvick's opinion:

"They're really good, but they're really, really lucky, too," Harvick said. "Jimmie is a good friend mine, but there's no denying how lucky they are. They have a golden horseshoe stuck up their a--."

I wish he'd be more opinionated.

I realize this happened over a week ago, but it goes back to the thought of the #48 team's recent run of four straight championships and if it's good for the sport.

To put it in perspective, how would most baseball fans feel if the New York Yankees (either you love them or hate them) won four straight World Series? Waht about football fans if the New England Patriots won four consecutive Super Bowls? That's the company Johnson is distancing himself from.

The only true upside in this is that other teams must truly be on their "A game" every week in order to compete with Johnson and his crew. But the downside can hold potentially bad vibes for NASCAR.

The casual NASCAR fan may be tiring of seeing Johnson in victory lane. They me be tiring of hearing the same smug comments during the after race presser. I watch the race every week, have a certain driver I root for, have followed NASCAR for over two decades and this string by Johnson is ruining it for me. Not because my favorite driver isn't winning, but because it's just plain getting tiresome.

But something hit me about the "golden horseshoe" of which Harvick spoke. Harvick is making me see the light brighter and brighter. And he's correct. I did a little digging into the Sprint Cup Championships Johnson has won and found that he is truly lucky to have the four in a row.

One point to keep in mind is how the Chase works. Cliff notes version. There are 36 races during the season. After the 26th race, the top 12 point earners gain a spot in the Chase, NASCAR's playoff. Points are awarded based on the driver's finishing position (a "table" is used). Bonuses of 5 points are given for leading a lap and for leading the most laps. The points are then "reset" at 5,000 for each of the 12. An additional 10 points is then awarded per victory in those previous 26 races. If you're in the Chase and had three wins, you would start with 5,030 points. This method emphasizes wins.

Got it? Okay. Now, with all of these scenarios, keep in mind that I'm using the old method (No, I'm not trying to confuse you.). Points were still awarded for placement and laps led, etc., but there was no "resetting" of points and no bonus for wins. We must also assume that the outcome of all races were the same. This method emphasized consistency.

So, Johnson won his first Cup in 2006. His primary competition that year was Matt Kenseth. The Chase process favored Johnson and so did the old process as Johnson would have still won but by only 4 point versus the 56 points margin in which Johnson received credit.

2007 is an entirely different story. This is the one glaring example of the system screwing someone. Entering the Chase if the points were not "reset", Johnson would have been credited with 3,439 after race #26. His teammate, Jeff Gordon, would have scored 3,849, a 410 point margin over Johnson with the 10 races to go. Johnson did have two more victories over the "regular season" (6 to 4), but Gordon was more consistent with finishes than Johnson. After the "reset" Johnson held a 20 point lead over Gordon before a single Chase race was held (5,060 to 5,040). Providing the exact same finishes and no point manipulation, Gordon would have won the title going away, 5,455 to Johnson's 5,102.

I also make this point. It was perceived in 1996 that Gordon should have won what was then called the Winston Cup. Terry Labonte won it that year despite winning only two races to the ten victories of Gordon's. In the 2004 season, a format similar to the one currently used was adopted to determine the series champ.

2008's result would have possibly been different as well. It was down to three drivers this time, Johnson, Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch. Busch would have held 3,878 points, Edwards sat at 3,671 and Johnson was third at 3,576, again, providing no reset. One thing I will point out here. Busch may have had the biggest meltdown in history that season. With his presumed 207 point lead, he would have finished third...to Carl Edwards. Johnson would have been second. Total points would have been Edwards with 5,236, Johnson with 5,220 and Busch with 4,984.

Last season would have been a season title for Jimmie...and a great comeback and well deserved. The points leader would have been Tony Stewart with 3,806. Johnson sat on 3,534, 272 points behind heading into the last 10 races. Johnson reeled off 1,622 points in those 10 races while Stewart could only muster 1,279. Johnson's margin of victory for the Sprint Cup would have been 71 points.

2006 and 2009 would have resulted in Cups while 2007 and 2008 would not have seen championships for #48.

Now, about that horseshoe...