U.S. Open Prep

Update: Congrats to Graeme McDowell on his win. I was there with my prediction of Dustin Johnson through 54 holes. Johnson didn't exactly have a good start to his day firing a devastating 42 on the front nine.

Ah. Tomorrow's the day. The 2010 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach commences and this year is the 110th such Open. Here's a few things that should catch your eye over the next few days.

1. Tiger Woods
A no-brainer that Tiger's game is under its biggest microscope ever. Woods has yet to bring his "A" game this year, but I think we can cut him a bit of a break. He's only started four tournaments in 2010. His best finish is T4 at The Masters. He also has a missed cut at Quail Hollow and Tiger had to withdraw from The Players due to his neck issues. You better believe the entire world will be watching Mr. Woods. Remember the lat time the U.S. Open was at Pebble Beach? Tiger posted a -12 and won by an incredible 15 strokes. Tiger also won at Pebble in February, 2000.

2. The "Can Lefty be #1" watch
There are four different scenarios where Phil Mickelson can leave Pebble being ranked as the #1. Class is in session, so pay attention.

• Lefty wins, OR
• Lefty finishes 2nd and Tiger finishes outside the top 4, OR
• Lefty finishes 3rd and Tiger finishes outside the top 18, OR
• Lefty finishes in a two-way tie for 3rd or better and Tiger misses the cut

Winning it all is the best of both worlds for Mickelson. He gets another major win, a major he has yet to emerge as the victor. We all remember the debacle at Winged Foot in 2006. That bore out the quote "I'm such an idiot" from Lefty. In 2000 when Tiger blitzed the field, Phil finished at +9, 21 strokes behind Woods. Mickelson has won at Pebble Beach three times (1998, 2005, 2007). Mickelson has 5 runner-up finishes at the U.S. Open and in each year of his Masters victories, Lefty has been the runner-up in the Open. By using that, Tiger must play some good golf or #1 will be gone.

3. Can Steve Stricker capture his first major?
Stricker now wears the title of "best player to not win a major". His best finish in a major is at the 1998 PGA Championship at Sahalee which was won by Vijay Singh. Another downer is that Sticker hasn't won at Pebble Beach. Personally, Stricker's too good a guy to have not won a major.

4. If Lee Westwood has the 54-hole lead, can he close the deal?
Almost mean to make such a statement, but it bears thought. Westwood has come so close in majors only to fall in the final round. He had the 54-hole lead at Augusta and watched Phil Mickelson steal his destiny. In Westwood's last three majors, he has that 2nd to Phil at The Masters in April and two T3's (The Open Championship and the PGA Championship). At the Open Championship, Westwood held the lead for most of the final round until he bogeyed 3 of the last 4 holes. At the PGA, Westwood was never in contention, but carded a 2-under-par 70 for the final round for his T3 finish. There's a lot of golfer here, but there's one important fact that stands in Westwood's way. No player has won the week previous to the U.S. Open and won the Open.

5. Weather and course setup
Weather is always a factor at Pebble Beach whether it's February or June. The course is setup to address wind of up to 10 miles-per-hour. The wind can howl and gusts into the 40s is not too far fetched. New tee boxes have been added just for this event along with an additional bunker or two. The one major issue will be the amount of run the ball gets upon landing in the fairway or on the greens. The fairways will play about 30 yards narrower than the setup for the February event due to the run. We all know the depth of the rough that will be in play for the U.S. Open. Accuracy of the tee will be even more at a premium. And the greens are extremely firm. Phil Mickleson said the setup is great, but the greens are so firm that they could hit 14 on the Stimpmeter over the period of play. Add that there's no rain in the forecast and things could turn even tighter on the course over the four rounds. Anything under par for the tourney will be a great score as it was in 2000.

6. Another "no-name" winner

My pick. Dustin Johnson

Majors have a way of producing the unlikeliest champions. Who honestly thought Lucas Glover would win at Bethpage last year? And Y.E. Yang and last year's PGA? Shaun Micheel? Rich Beem? Ben Curtis? Todd Hamilton? Zach Johnson? The hot name this year seems to be Bo Van Pelt. If Glover can pull off a repeat, he would be the first to do such since Curtis Strange won back-to-back in 1988 and 1989. Before Strange, it was the great Ben Hogan that pulled the double in 1950 and 1951.

Yes, Pebble will play tougher than it normally does. Personally, I look for a repeat. Remember when I said that when Tiger won in 2000 he also won there i February? I'm going that route and taking Dustin Johnson. He's won the last two tournaments at Pebble Beach and, if he can be accurate, he's destined to win.

I also got Lefty taking second.