Saturday, March 05, 2011

The AL East: Tampa Bay Rays

Evan LongoriaImage by Keith Allison via Flickr
No single team lost more good players than the Rays. You would almost believe a firesale had transpired. Well, it kind of did. The team slashed payroll due to several factors of which I won't go too in depth on. The #1 reason is most likely that lack of attendance. It's a shame that a really good team could not draw.

Here's who has left Tampa since the end of last season: Carl Crawford, Joaquin Benoit, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, Carlos Pena, Rafael Soriano. Did I leave anyone out? A lot of money left Tampa. A lot of talent left Tampa. It will be an interesting season in 2011. Can this team minus that talent still be able to at least maintain the level of attendance as in the past?

The Rays did add a couple of big names in Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. The jury is out on if those two can solidly contribute. I believe Damon can, but Manny may be a wild card. If he can approach something close to what he was before his 50-game suspension a couple years back, he will be a major factor in the Rays lineup as a DH.

But the offense may still be suspect. Dan Johnson is currently listed as the #1 1B. For all the grief Carlos Pena got for all those homers and a below the Mendoza line average, Johnson is by far an upgrade in either department. You could consider it a downgrade even. Now, there is a distinct possibility that Ben Zobrist will play first more than Johnson. That will depend on how the outfield shakes out.

The rest of the infield appears to be in decent hands. Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac both put forth sold efforts in 2010. Both have the potential to produce double digits homers and 60+ RBI. Then you move to third.

There rests the All-Star Evan Longoria. While the Rays won this division last season, Longoria's personal numbers were slightly off...slightly. He registered only 22 home runs, but still managed over 100 RBI. No question he is the middle of the lineup now with Pena gone. And he steeped up as a team leader last season. Just ask B.J. Upton about that.

I mentioned the outfiled. One person can make things easier on manager Joe Maddon: Desmond Jennings. If he's ready for the big time, the Rays are better off offensively. That would afford the move of Zobrist to first and thus producing an outfield of Jennings, Damon and Upton. The outfield defensively may be better as well with Jennings in the mix.

But one position that does get overlooked on nay rosters is catcher. The Rays have a good one in John Jaso. He's not going to cracnk out the homers. He's not going to overwhelm you offensively. He's just solid. And they also possess a reliable backup in Kelly Shoppach.

The Rays starting rotation will take on a bit of a different look this season. Not much from the starting standpoint, but the relievers.

Even with the deal that sent Matt Garza to the Chicago Cubs, the Rays did so for one reason: Jeremy Hellickson. He has been touted as a arm the Rays can rely heavily on for the future. Baseball America rated him the #18 prospect prior to the 2010 season. And he performed going 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.101 WHIP.

But all the talk about the Rays starters should really start with David Price. Speaking of putting a season together. Price did just that last season and finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting behind Felix Hernandez of the Mariners. ALl Price did was manufacture a season in which he was 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA and a WHIP of 1.193. Not bad for a guy in only his second full season as a starter.

The rest of the staff looks like it will be James Shields, Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis with Price atop the rotation and Hellickson rounding out the five man group. Overall, this staff doesn't really bowl you over based on past numbers, but what does spell good news for Rays fans is that with the exception of Shields, all are in their early to middle 20's. The ceiling is there for these guys.

Where the biggest question is concerns the bullpen. Soriano and Benoit were as potent an 8th and 9th inning combo as any in the bigs last season. Maddon has stated he will most likely utilize as bullpen by committee. That formula usually spells bad things.

The main reason why there's such flux with the closer's role is the health of J.P. Howell. He's currently in the process of rehabbing a his left shoulder after having a procedure to repair a torn labrum. Howell believes he can be back by the beginning of May although mid-May is more likely. The sooner Howell returns, the better the Rays pen will be. When he returns, the closer's role is schedule to be his.

After that, you have the mixed bag (and results) of Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta and possibly Andy Sonnastine. Farnsworth is the lading "candidate", but his past experiences as a closer have registered less than stellar results. Yes, Howell can't return soon enough.

The 2011 Rays will look and play to a bit of a different beat than in the past three seasons. The issues may not be the offense. It may not be the defense. The pressure to defend the 2010 AL East crown will fall on a young starting staff and a somewhat subject bullpen.
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