Thursday, March 10, 2011

The NL East: Florida Marlins

I took this photo on June 5, 2007 06:25, 8 Jun...Image via Wikipedia
If there's one team the can play a wild card role within the NL East this upcoming season, the Florida Marlins are just that team. They have punch. They have pop. They have arms.

So why is no one mentioning the Marlins as a dark horse to win this division?

Maybe there's a place or two. Kind of reminds me of the Cincinnati Reds of last season, but the Marlins hill seems a little higher of a climb. Philly, Atlanta.

But don't rest on these guys...as you will see.

The infield holds a nice mix of power and average. The one Marlin everyone knows of is shortstop Hanley Ramirez. All he does is hit 20+ HR, steal around 30 bags, hit over .300 and score over 100 runs. Not a bad piece to start. And there are others to add to the mix.

While Dan Uggla has departed to Atlanta (via trade), the Marlins receive Omar Infante in the deal. Don't expect that homers, but the batting average and defense will be better. Infante can handle the bat and that's something the Marlins need toward the top of the lineup.

The corners are manned by Gaby Sanchez at first and Wes Helms at third. Sanchez had an excellent 2010 campaign smashing 19 HR and driving in 85. He also posted splits of .273/.341/.448. Getting Sanchez some playing time at the end of '09 paid off well for Florida.

Helms is an interesting study. He doesn't exactly fall under the umbrella I'd set forth about power and average. He hasn't exactly produced massive numbers over the past few seasons. He hasn't hit double digit home runs since 2006. That was also the last season he hit over .300. His RBI count has steadily resided in the high 30's since that 2006 season while playing no less than 112 games during that span. It's not the glove either. a lifetime .942 fielder.

The outfield is overflowing with young talent. From left to right, there's Logan Morrison (23), Chris Coghlan (25) and Mike Stanton (21).

Morrison has shown pop in the minors and the Marlins brass are hoping that can begin to shine through this season. He only had 2 in 2010 but hit as many as 24 in a minor league season. Coghlan is a former Rookie of the Year (2009) and will be playing center full-time for the first time...ever. Stanton is sometimes just a man among boys. His numbers bear that.

And don't forget who the Marlins reeled in to play catcher. John Buck, after years of hiding in Kansas City, had a breakout season for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010. It wasn't so much from the standpoint of his power, but his average. He hit .281 last season, a career high. He was also selected to his first All-Star Game.

This offense has the potential to produce an inordinate amount of runs. It will rest on the arms to curtail the opponents from scoring.

This starting rotation is solid. Maybe the most solid 1-5 in the NL aside from Philly. Josh Johnson (a preseason Cy Young favorite), Ricky Nolasco, Javier Vazquez, Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad. Wow. That's a staff.

In Johnson, you have a guy that led the NL in ERA (2.30) and led the major in HR/9 (0.3). He keeps the ball in the park (7 HR allowed) and opposing hitters scraped a .229 average against him. Despite having his season a little shortened, Johnson did finish fifth in the NL Cy Young voting last season. He's not at his ceiling yet either.

For Nolasco, it will be the usual "steady as you go" season. He has never had a full season with less than a .500 winning percentage (He missed almost all of 2007). He's currently battling an injured thumb and is scheduled to throw in a simulated game today. If  Nolasco can just slightly improve upon his career numbers, 2011 could be his real breakout season.

To me, the wild card of the staff is Vazquez. He signed a one-year deal and has much to prove. There have been numerous reports of a drop of 2 mph on his fastball. If this is the case and those 2 mph cannot be recovered, Vazquez must be able to locate his pitches better. If he can return to his '09 form (while he was in Atlanta), the Marlins would be ecstatic. In '09, he was 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA, a WHIP of 1.026 and a SO/BB of 5.41. He finished 4th in the CY Young that season.

Sanchez finally got a full season of starting under his belt in 2010. His numbers weren't all that great, but there are signs that he is still learning. He did post a career high in wins (13) while post a career best WHIP (1.344). His rookie campaign of '06 was impressive. If he can only return to that form, he's as good as any #4 in the bigs.

Like a lot of those on the Marlins roster, Volstad is young (24). Hard to believe he's entering his fourth season. I think there was too much placed on him at such a young age. There was a bit of hype surrounding Volstad and that may have had a bit of an adverse effect on how he's perceived. The Marlins have been patient with him and 2011 could be the season that all pays off in a big way. His innings have increased from year to year and so has his wins. I would not be surprised if this kid racks up 15 or more wins this year.

The big question is the bullpen. Leo Nunez will once again be the closer. The Marlins obviously have supreme confidence in him. He has also shown slight improvement over his two seasons in the role. 26 to 30 in saves. 4.4.06 to 3.46 in ERA. 2.22 to 3.38 in SO/BB. That's comparing '09 to '10.

The bigger question may be who else can help in the pen? The Marlins traded the once promising Cameron Maybin to the San Diego Padres for the relief arms of Ryan Webb and Edwin Mujica. The Marlins also brought in Randy Choate as a situational arm. The key may be Webb. His record (3-1) and ERA (2.90) were very good. The WHIP (1.407) was way too high. If he can limit those hits, he will be on track. He's only 25, so the room for improvement is still there.

If the pieces fall right, the Marlins can contend for the NL East title. If they don't, they could finish no better than fourth.
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