Saturday, November 14, 2009

NFL Week 10 Preview - Early Games

Week 10 is the last of the bye weeks. Houston and the New York Giants get the week off. Boy, do the Giants ever need it! Almost every game is important. Here...we...go!

Atlanta (5-3) @ Carolina (3-5)

Falcons: Over the last two games, RB Michael Turner (left) has really started to resemble the Turner of '08. 317 yards on 38 carries with 3 TD. I'd say he's back in the groove. His performance this week will be vital to Atlanta since the Panthers are 23rd against the rush. But what about QB Matt Ryan? He may have a bit of a rough time as Carolina ranks 6th against the pass.

But this game will be in the hands of the Falcons defense. As the case has been all season, you can move the ball on them, but they rarely let you get it in the endzone. Atlanta's focus will be on the duo of RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Both are banged up, so Atlanta may get a tad of a breather. This is a critical game for the Dirty Birds and being on the road will make it that much tougher.

Panthers: All of Carolina's hopes of a home upset hinge on RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Problem here. They're both listed as questionable. Williams is nursing a bad left knee and Stewart is tending an Achilles tendon issue. As we've observed, Carolina cannot put the game in the hands of QB Jake Delhomme due to his tendency of throwing picks. At this point, Stewart will go, but the health of Williams is a bit up in the air.

The Panthers defense has slowly improved, but their rushing defense is among the third (23rd) in the NFL. Even with the possibility of Williams not playing, Carolina must stop the run and put Atlanta in third and long situations. Then, the front line can pin their ears back and go ater QB Matt Ryan.

Fantasy Alert: ATL: RB Michael Turner is a given. Ryan, White, and Gonzalez are among the top 10 at their positions as far as points, but the Panthers defense does not yield a whole lot to each position (QB - 10.8, WR - 15.1, TE - 5.3). The Falcons D/ST may not be a bad play with the turnover issues that bite the Panthers. CAR: If Williams is a go, he plays. Same with Stewart. Stewart could be a bigger play if Williams doesn't suit up. WR Steve Smith is an interesting option in deeper leagues due to Delhomme's inconsistent play.

Tampa Bay (1-7) @ Miami (3-5)

Buccaneers: A lot of people had last week as a loss for the Bucs, including me. How could anyone thing a rookie QB in his first game would beat the Pack? Raheem Morris and Co. did just that. With some wind in the sails, the Bucs travel south. Two of Tampa Bay's offensive cogs, WR Antonio Bryant (knee) and RB Derrick Ward (knee), may not play. Neither participated in Friday's practice. Losing Ward isn't as much of an issue as Bryant. The Bucs are 28th in total offense and rank 25th in scoring.

The defense won't get much of a break either. Tampa Bay is 30th against the run and Miami is 4th in toting the rock. Weakness against strength. The Bucs D must put this game in QB Chad Henne's hands or they will simply get mowed.

Fantasy Alert: TB: I hesitate to start any Bucs. MIA: Both RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Willliams are starts. If you have a weak D/ST, consider the Fins.

Detroit (1-7) @ Minnesota (7-1)

Lions: So much for leading 17-0 after the first quarter last week. All QB Matthew Stafford did was toss 5 INT in the loss to Seattle. And now we have head coach Jim Schwartz dispelling any rumors of a rift between Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson. Oh, boy. But Detroit just might catch a small break. Very small. Vikings CB Antoine Winfiled is out. That could mean Johnson getting loose on a couple of plays. RB Kevin Smith will find it a rough go, but he did manage 83 yards on 24 carries in week 2 against the Vikes. The Lions had more rushing yards thatn Minnesota in that game. Detroit had a 10-0 lead midway through the second quarter. But we all know how that ended.

The Lions defense? What can you say about them? Only the Tennessee Titans allow more points and passing yards.

Vikings: We know all the offensive stars: QB Brett Favre, RB Adrian Peterson, WR Percy Harvin (right). In their first meeting in week 2, Favre had 2 TD (but only 155 yards), Peterson had 92 yards and a TD, Harvin only 41 yards receiving but a TD. The low yardage tells a big story. The Vikes were working on a short field due to 2 INT thrown by Stafford.

That short field may come into play this week, too. DE Jared Allen is eating opposing tackles and is tied for the league lead in sacks (10.5 with Denver's Elvis Dumervil). Minnesota is prone to giving up passing yardage, but you have to keep that front four out of the backfield to have any hope of success. And the Vikings are coming off a bye.

Fantasy Alert: DET: WR Calvin Johnson may not be such a bad play, especially with Winfield out. MIN: Yep. Favre, Perterson, Harvin, and even TE Visanthe Shaincoe are plays.

Jacksonville (4-4) @ New York Jets (4-4)

Jaguars: Here's an inresting observation. The Jags are 9th in total offense, but only 21st in scoring. They move the ball effectively. So what's the deal? A -3 in turnover ratio is one factor. Another could be that QB David Garrard has been hit more than any other QB in the league (64). Yes, more than Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (61). Add this to the list. K Josh Scobee has attempted more 50+ FG than any other kicker. The one saving grace: RB Maurice Jones-Drew. He's 6th in rushing and is 1st in rushing TD. We know where the scoring comes from.

I would like point out the Jacksonville has only 8 QB sacks. Last. Yes, Cleveland, Detroit, St. Louis have more. The defensive woes do not end there. 23rd overall, 25th v. the pass, 22nd v. the rush, 24th in scoring defense. Remember when the Jags were a feared unit? Not anymore. And here you have the Jets and the best rushing offense in the NFL staring you down.

Jets: The bye certainly came at the right time for the Jets. A chance to correct those mistakes. And the Jets have to correct those if they wish to make the playoffs. After a 3-0 start, the Jets have stumbled to a 4-4 record. A steady dose of RBs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene will help against a weak run defense. QB Mark Sanchez should be able to work the filed a bit, too. Despite what many think, 8 TD and 10 INT are not bad stats for a rookie QB. Sanchez does have the luxury of an explosive running attack that some QBs do not have.

Here's where the rubber meets the road, the Jets 15th ranked rushing defense against Jags RB Maurice Jones-Drew. New York would love to put his game into the hands of the Jags QB David Garrard and the passing offense and eliminate MJD from being a factor. If MJD proves not to be a force, then the Jets can get some hits on Garrard.

Fantasy Alert: JAC: RB Maurice Jones-Drew is a play (Duh!) and QB David Garrard is a sit, if you have him because the Jets allow the fewest points to opposing QBs. NYJ: In a deep league? Have to play 2 QBs? Sanchez might be your #2. The Jags allow the 3rd most points to QBs. RB Thomas Jones is a play and RB Shonn Greene is a decent flex option. You can slo throw WR Braylon Edwards in the mix, too. Having the extra week with Sanchez can't hurt.

Cincinnati (6-2) @ Pittsbugh (6-2)

Bengals: RB Cedric Benson (left) is one of the best stories of this season. He's second in rushing and has given the Bengals a boost offensively. His play has allowd the Bengals passing attack to slowly progress. QB Carson Palmer started the season a bit slow with only 8 TD and 7 INT throught the first six games. The last two: 6 TD and 0 INT. Losing WR Chris Henry (arm) for the season doesn't help, but the emergence of WR Andre Caldwell does stem the tide. The only thing Palmer needs is a good TE.

Don't just look at the Bengals and think of Palmer, Benson, and Ochocinco. Their defense has been stellar for a team that's not known as a defensive team. How's this grab you? 5th in scoring defense. Add this: 2nd against the run. Not bad at ll. LB Keith Rivers won't get another shot against the Steelers due to a bad calf. Where Cincy is vulnerable is against the pass. And who's on the other side of the line? That's Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger.

Steelers: The running game is coming back. RB Rashard Mendenhall slashed through the Broncos D for 155 yards on Monday night. That has to be a beautiful sight for QB Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of the Steelers offense. Opposing teams must now also focus on Mendenhall, and that means more time for Ben in the passing game. But Pittsburgh's offense cannot have a slow start against Cincy like it did against Denver.

The defense must be ready, too. Hard to say that considering the Steelers possess the 5th best defense, 1st gainst the run. LB James Harrison is up to his antics again. He's close to the some numbers he had last season. In case you forgot, Harrison was the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year in '08. The defense will also get starting S Ryan Clark back in the lineup this week. Clark missed last week's game due to the altitude of Denver causing complications of his sickle cell trait.

Fantasy Alert: CIN: You've ridden RB Cedric Benson a lot lately. This might be the week to sit him since Pittsburgh allows the least RB points. WR Chad Ochocinco may be a different story. The Steelers don't allow a lot of scoring, but they do allow WR points for yardage. PIT: QB Ben Roethlisberger is a start due to Cincy's weak pass defense. He's the only given, but WRs Hines Ward, Santonio Holes and Mike Wallace are good options at the WR position.

New Orleans (8-0) @ St. Louis (1-7)

Saints: I know what you're thinking. This game's going to be dreadful. New Orleans will simply run all over the Rams. Best overall offense, best scoring offesnse. And New Orleans won't be caught looking ahead as they have Tampa Bay next week. The only bad news from an offensiv standpoint iss that WR Lance Moore will be out with an ankle problem. Oh, no. QB Drew Brees is down one of his weapons. Like anyone will actually feel sorry for him.

While the offense grabs a lot of attention, the defese has been pulling its share of the load. We all know theSaints have a great offense, but the additions of new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and S Darren Sharper have added a bite to this unit. The defense will be shorthanded this week as DT Sedrick Ellis (knee) and CB Jabari Greer (groin) are out.

Rams: You have got to love RB Steven Jackson. He's 3rd in rushing. Opposing defenses know he's getting the ball. But he keeps coming at you. And he finally got a TD in the Rams last game. Granted, it was against the Lions, but don't let that fool you. He IS the Rams offense, and Jackson will be a factor this week against the 19th ranked rushing defense.

But for St. Louis to hold any hope of a major upset, the Rams must stop the Saints passing game. And their running game. In other words, the Rams their work cut out for them.

Fantasy Alert: NO: Any Saints offensive player except WR Moore. And if you have the Saints D/ST? You can get points there, too. STL: RB Steven Jackson is a #1 RB this week. He's the only Ram you should have anyway.

Buffalo (3-5) @ Tennessee (2-6)

Bills: QB Trent Edwards returns after missing the last two games due to a concussion. The one player that might not be so happy is WR Lee Evans. But the status of WR Terrell Owens is still in doubt, and that makes Evans the #1 WR if T.O. is a no-go. This might be a good opponent for Buffalo and Edwards' return. Buffalo is 19th in rushing with RBs Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, but they have only 2 rushing TD this season. That will have to change, and it should against the worst scoring defense in the league.

Now all the Bills D has to do is find any way to stop Titans RB Chris Johnson. The Bills are good against the pass (11th), but last against the run. Stop Johnson and make, and I do mean make, QB Vince Young beat you. It's the only chance yu've got.

Titans: QB Vince Young is 2-0 as a starter this year. Beating the 49ers last week was impressive to say the least. but who wouldn't be 2-0 when you can turn around and give the ball to RB Chris Johnson (right)? Tennessee has amassed 2,610 yards of total offense. Johnsn accounts for 1,121 of those yards (43%). He's THE reason to watch a Titans game.

Remember last year when nobody wanted to face the Titans defense? Talk about a turnaround...in the wrong direction. Tennessee is last in scoring defense, 31st in overall defense, and last in passing defense. It'a agood thing that the Titans are playing an offensively challenged team in the Bills. Heck, they allowed 27 points to the 49ers lsat week. The same 49ers that cold only score 10 points on Thursday night.

Fantasy Alert: BUF: Even though the Titans allow the most points to opposing QBs, I'm not sure if starting Edwards is a good thing. But WR Lee Evans may be a decent option in deeper leagues, especailly if T.O. doesn't play. I said may. K Rian Lindell is a possibility if you don't have a quality kicker. TEN: RB Chris Johnson. Need I say more?

Denver (6-2) @ Washington (2-6)

Broncos: Okay. So QB Kyle Orton looks like he morphed into his days in Chicago over the last two games. It might not get much better. The Redskins are tops in the NFL against the pass. What's really happened to Denver the last two games is the lack of a ground game. Enter RB Knowshon Moreno. This could be his breakout game of his rookie season. The thing I think the Broncos aren't doing enough of is using Moreno with screen passes. Hmm. Did I just stumble onto something?

Elvis Dumervil. Brain Dawkins. D.J. Williams, Andra Davis. Mike Nolan. These are the some of the guys responsible for turing the Broncos from a laughing stock into the league's 3rd best defense. Nolan
was brought in as defensive coordinator and head coach Josh McDaniels could not have made a better choice. This unit is why Denver sits atop the AFC West.

Redskins: Another week, another Redskins story. Last week it was CB DeAngelo Hall mixing it up with Atlanta head coach Mike Smith...sort of.

The Washginton offense has a major issue. RB Clinton Poris will be out die to a concussion. That leaves RB Ladell Betts to carry the load. But he's listed as questionable with an ankle injury. With all the grief QB Jason Campbell receves, he has put up decent numbers. A 66.2% completion percentage is nothing to sneeze at. It's that he only has 9 TD to go along with 8 INT that concerns the Redskins faithful. And don't forget thet Washington has yet to score over 17 points in any game this season. That pts a lot of pressure on the defense.

The defense. A good unit. 10th in scoring (19.2 poins a game). 6th overall. 1st in passing. The downfall is the rush D. 25th. And the Broncos come to D.C. averaging over 111 yards a game. Simple for Washigton. Make Broncos QB Kyle Orton beat you. Take away the rush, and you might get a W. And Chargers fans will be ecstatic.

Fantasy Alert: DEN: Moreno should be no worse than a flex option. The Broncos D/ST should get a go at the Redskins offense as well. WAS: RB Ladell Betts might be the only Redkins player to consider and that's if he's healthy. Hey, I said "if".

Tomorrow brings us a look at the long awaited Pats/Colts Sunday night tilt. Dallas goes to Green Bay. Philly travels out west to take on the Chargers. KC and Oakland go at it for the second time ths year as well as the Seahawks and Cardinals.
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2 comments:

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    Jason
    SportsSoundOff.net
    SPORTSMONARCH.com

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks a lot for getting back to me. I'm going to place your link on both SportsSoundOff.net and SPORTSMONARCH.com. Please do the same.

    Jason

    ReplyDelete

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