AFC Divisional Clash: Jets/Patriots

Trash talking. It's part of the modus operandi of the New York Jets, specifically head coach Rex Ryan. Well, I believe the Jets and the Boisterous One may have made a critical mistake. You know you may me talking too much when Reggie Jackson tells you to shut up.

Image via Wikipedia

Yet, the venom continues to spew. Antonio Cromartie, Bart Scott and Ryan have all called attention to themselves and their team. Ryan says it's personal. Cromatie called Brady an ahole. Scott says Welker's days in a uniform are numbered. All I ask is that these guys that crow back it up. And even then, it will be the same should they prevail in this contest.

And the Patriots, for the most part, just watch it flow. That's how they operate off the field.

The hottest of NFL rivalries (I said hottest, not best) takes center stage in Sunday's late game.

Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Network: CBS
Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms

When the Patriots have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	32.4 (1st)	363.8 (8th)	240.4 (11th)	123.3 (9th)
defense	19.0 (6th)	291.5 (3rd)	200.6 (6th)	90.9 (3rd)

The most likely NFL MVP, QB Tom Brady, performed about as well as you could considering a couple of circumstances.

One was the unknown associated with WR Wes Welker's return for destroying his knee in 2009's final regular season game. That question was loudly answered with Welker being second in the league in receptions with 112.

No player had a better 2010 season than Brady.
(Image by americanistadechiapas via Flickr)

The second was the trading of his only legitimate deep threat in WR Randy Moss. Well, Moss floundered and was released by Minnesota, reappeared with the Titans and pretty much disappeared.

Enter WR Deion Branch, former Super Bowl hero. It was like he never left. But the biggest surprise/addition was the of RB Danny Woodhead, a Jets reject. Woodhead, achieving cult hero status in the Boston area, has been the straw that stirs the drink. He can run and he can catch. Tell me how he ends up in New England? Easy. The kid's coachable.

The Pats even have a power running game with BenJarvis Green-Ellis. He eclipsed the 1,00 yard mark this year with 1,008 yards.

And don't forget the numerous targets at tight end in rookies Ron Gronkowski and Aaron Hernanadez. A pretty potent offense. They usually score early and score often. They do not commit turnovers. How do you defend all that?

Jets head coach Rex Ryan will face the Pats for the third time this season. The first game, the Jets overcame a halftime deficit and defeated the Patriots 28-14. The second game was a disaster. A 45-3 loss at Gillette Stadium, the site for this game.

The defense is the Jets calling card. As is usually the case, the pressure may fall right on the backs of the Jets defense. While we all know of the talents of CB Darelle Revis, teams have taken to task of picking on CB Antonio Cromartie. Teams have been successful with that approach. And Cromatie must not only shut his yap, he must shut down the Pats receivers.

But that may be asking too much. The Jets D line must produce massive pressure on Brady. If not, another long game will ensue. And it could get out of hand as quick as the last time these teams met.

When the Jets have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	22.9 (13th)	351.0 (11th)	202.6 (22nd)	148.4 (4th)
defense	19.6 (8th)	366.5 (25th)	258.5 (30th)	108.0 (11th)

For the last two postseasons, QB Mark Sanchez has shown a bit of maturity. While he didn't dazzle in any of the three playoff games in which he has played, he has managed to show the world that he can play the position. The drive he led last week that led the a game winning field by Nick Folk proved to me that he has moxie.

Sanchez will be key for the Jets.
(Image by Seamus Murray via Flickr)

Now, the rest of the offense must follow. We know that the Jets will run the ball and run it some more. Just like the defense, the running game and Jets are hand in hand. RBs Shonn Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson must have the exact type of games they had against the Colts. Keep the Pats offense of the field.

The Jets do have other weapons in WRs Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holes and TE Dustin Keller. But the best weapon, WR/KR Brad Smith, may not be available. Smith runs the Wildcat, returns kicks and lines up at receiver. He could be the Jets MVP that's how valuable SMith is to the entire Jets gameplan.

The saving grace may be that the Patriots aren't exactly a smothering defense. They're not your prototypical championship defense. But they get the job done. They keep you out of the endzone. The Pats defense yielded over 366 yards a game, ranking 25th. But they only allowed 19.6 points per contest, good for 8th overall. Another bend, but don't break defense.

In other words, you can move the ball on them, but your chances of putting the ball in the endzone are not great.

But the best aspect of the Patriots defense may be their ability to force turnovers. That's really an understatement. The Pats were a +28 in turnover margin, best in the league. They forced 38 turnovers. Only that week 2 game in the new Meadowlands accounted for the only game in which New England's defense did NOT force a turnover. They forced three in the rematch.

Sound familiar? Isn't that how the Saints operated last season? Explosive offense. Opportunistic defense.

I'm not giving the Lombardi to the Pats yet. I'm just sayin'.

NFC Divisional Game: Seahawks/Bears

The Chicago Bears have a chance for accomplish two things in this game. One is to avenge a 23-20 loss at the hands of Seattle earlier this season. Second, and I'm not so sure this can be done, is silence some of their critics.

I say that last part because the Bears are hosting an 8-9 team. You could conceivably say that Chicago is in a no-win situation there. Still, a win in the playoffs means you play another week.

Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Network: FOX
Announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa

When the Bears have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	20.9 (21st)	289.4 (30th)	188.4 (28th)	101.0 (22nd)
defense	25.4 (25th)	368.6 (27th)	249.6 (27th)	118.9 (21st)

One of the most frustrating things for Bears fans this past season was trying to determine what type of offense the Bears had? Mike Martz was brought in to upgrade the offense, but that didn't appear to be the case at the beginning even though the Bears were winning. QB Jay Cutler was getting pounded and the O line was porous at best.

Then a switch went was flipped. Martz changed up a few things. He changed protection schemes. He changed Cutler's drops and reads. He involved RB Matt Forte more. Both have made Cutler a better QB. Those games where Cutler reverts to just slinging the ball have diminished.

(Image: Monica's Dad via Flickr

And when Forte was integrated more in the offense, it become more formidable. Forte's 2009 was near the season he had in 2008 when Forte was the Bears offense. In 2009, defenses keyed on him and he was stifled. The second half of 2010 looked more like the Forte of '08.

But don't think the Bears are just about Cutler and Forte. WRs Johnny Knox and Devin Hester (yes, he is still learning AND improving) come along just like the rest of the offensive unit. And even though TE Greg Olsen has yet to live up to his status as a first round pick, he's become a fave of Cutler.

The bad news for the Seahawks defense isn't that it's not a good unit. It's that their best player, LB Lofa Tatupu, may not be available after suffering a concussion against the Saints. Today will be the day to determine if he's a go. If he can't that leaves a major hole in an already bad defense.

So how did Seattle beat New Orleans last week? The Saints had seven trips in the red zone. They scored four TDs. That's how. I thought turnovers would play a vital role, but they didn't. The turnover battle was even. The Seahawks may have to improve on that this week. The Bears can run the ball where the Saints had issues all season with the rushing attack.

There could be a saving grace here...will the "old" Jay Cutler return? If it does, the Seahawks defense could feat on picks.

When the Seahawks have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	19.4 (23rd)	297.8 (28th)	208.8 (19th)	89.0 (31st)
defense	17.9 (4th)	314.3 (9th)	224.2 (20th)	90.1 (2nd)

Last week, RB Marshawn Lynch pulled off one of the greatest runs in playoff history to more or less seal the deal. QB Matthew Hasselbeck had perhaps his best game of the season. It seemed that he rarely missed. When he did, the guy was covered and he was throwing it away.

Hasselbeck must be protected (Image Matt McGee via Flickr)

Hasselbeck will be key if the Seahawks are to pull another upset. He has to have the same game tomorrow he had last week. In fact, the whole Seahawks offense must duplicate their efforts in order to win. But can they do such?

Yes, Lynch must pound the ball between the tackles. Yes, Hasselbeck must be around 70% for his completions. Yes, John Carlson must be a factor. Yes, the O line must protect the aging QB. Yes, Mike Williams cannot drop balls. All are musts for Seattle to win.

There will be one difference in this game, LB Lance Briggs. He didn't play the first time. He will be comping at the bit for this go around. And it's an experienced trio at linebacker, Briggs, Brian Urlacher and Pino Tinoisamoa is as good a trio you will find.

Where the Bears upgraded, obviously, was bringing in DE Julius Peppers. And as much as you might think that helped the pass rush, it has helped stopping the run. The Bears were only behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2010. That's improvement.

The secondary is a bit underrated. They're aren't a lot of names back there, but they can hang with these Seahawks receivers. In fact, I like CB Charles Tillman. Look for Tillman to be manned up against Mike Williams.

Something that's interesting is that Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said he will punt to Devin Hester. I don't get that. Seattle has a good punter in Jon Ryan. He was one of the top placement punters in the NFL this season. And why put the kind of unnecessary pressure on your coverage teams?

And maybe Carroll is just blowing smoke.

The issue in this game will be can Seattle outscore Chicago. I'm not seeing it, but they did outscore the Saints last week and New Orleans does have a more potent offense that Chicago. But as I said, the Bears can run. If Jay Cutler has 60 pass attempts like Drew Brees did last week, it WILL be a Seahawks victory.

NFC Divisional Battle: Packers/Falcons

The prime time game for tomorrow evening is the Green Bay Packers making a return trip to the Georgia Dome to take on the NFC's #1 seed Atlanta Falcons. In week 12, Atlanta defeated the Packers 20-17. Falcons K Matt Bryant won the game with a 47 yard FG.

The matchup all will want to talk about here is the QBs: Rodgers and Matt Ryan. There is much more than that to this game.

Yes, the Falcons come into this game as the top seed in the NFC. Yes, they have a gifted QB in Ryan. And yes, Ryan's career record at the Georgia Dome is a mind-boggling 20-2. But why do I get the feeling they're being slighted here.

Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
Network: FOX
Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Pam Oliver

When the Falcons have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	25.9 (5th)	341.1 (16th)	222.9 (15h)	118.2 (12th)
defense	15.0 (2nd)	309.1 (5th)	194.2 (5th)	114.9 (18th)

If you check out the box score from that week 12 meeting, two things jump out at you.

The first is that Ryan only had 197 yards passing with only one TD. FOr the season, Ryan tossed 28 TD with only 9 INT. But I have to ask this: How in the world does Matty Ice only get 197 yards passing? Kind of easy when you have a running back like Michael Turner.

And that's the second thing. Turner rushed for 110 yards and a TD. Turner was 3rd in the NFL in rushing with 1,371 yards. That's the same gameplan in which the Falcons should approach with in this game. Those are both strengths of the Falcons offense. Run the ball and run it some more. When the opposing defense cheats toward the line of scrimmage, hit 'em with a pass. No, the Falcons do possess more than just these two. You don't have to look hard either.

Look out wide an there's WR Roddy White. He led the NFL in receptions with 115. White's 1,389 receiving yards was 2nd behind Denver's Brandon Lloyd. White also hauled in 10 TD passes, too. He can catch long passes or short passes. He will do whatever is asked of him.

Another receiving threat is future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez. He's Ryan's "go to guy". Whenever a play bogs down, you can bet Ryan will look the way of Gonzalez.

But the Packers don't have your ordinary defense. In fact, it's quite good as in the 5th best in yielding yardage. And they have a couple of playmakers on that side of the ball.

The first is LB Clay Matthews. Some are tabbing Matthews as the Defensive Player of the Year. You must account for him on every down and you have to consistently block him. No small task for any O lineman. Matthews sheds blocks as well as any player in the league. His aggressiveness can be exploited though.

And there's last year's Defensive Player of the Year in Charles Woodson. The fomer Heisman winner has carved himself a nice career as a Packer. He aims to keep that going. Look for Woodson to be up against White in man coverage in critical situations.

If Woodson isn't, the Packers do have to other capable corners in Truman Williams and Sam Shields that do have the speed to stay with White. Williams is as good a #2 CB in the NFL. On some teams, he could be a #1.

When the Packers have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	24.2 (10th)	358.1 (9th)	257.8 (5th)	100.4 (24th)
defense	18.0 (5th)	332.4 (16th)	226.6 (22nd)	105.9 (10th)

What more can be said of QB Aaron Rodgers. Yes, I feel he's among the top 5 QBs in the NFL. Lofty praise (not because I said this) and Rodgers deserves every bit he receives. In a season that saw the #1 RB (Ryan Grant) go down in week 1, an up and coming TE go by the wayside a couple weeks later (JerMichael Finley) and still fight off opposing rushers due to an O line that was a bit porous, Rodgers still managed Pro Bowl numbers (

There has been one area that Rodgers has been able to count on week in, week out: his receivers. Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jordy Nelson all accepted the challenge. While none of these guys produced eye bulging numbers this season, all are capable of turning a short pass into a long play.

Now, there's this rookie out of Buffalo named James Starks that has briefly revitalized the ground game. No one saw his performance from last coming. But Packers head coach Mike McCarthy saw enough in Starks to let him carry the load.

For the past few years, I've always thought of the Falcons defense as a "bend, but don't break" unit. The 2010 season was no different. They didn't allow a lot of points (5th), but they will yield some yards (16th).

The biggest concern will be putting pressure on Rodgers. DE John Abraham may not be 100% for the game and that could create a gap in the D line. It could also afford Rodgers with just that split second longer to throw. And that could spell doom for the Falcons. Kind of hard to replace Abraham's motor AND his 13 sacks.

The lack of a pass rush was put the corners under more pressure as well. Not like the Falcons has a major cause for concern on that front. Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes are a solid duo that can and will hold their own.

The linebackers are nothing to sneeze at either. There's veteran Mike Peterson to go along with Curtis Lofton and rookie Sean Weatherspoon. Again, solid group, but Peterson's veteran leadership cannot be overlooked here.

This game may boil down to one thing...the return game. The Falcons have just the man in Pro-Bowler Eric Weems.

As I said at the beginning, I feel like the Falcons are receiving no credit for the great season. How do you become the #1 seed yet no one feels like you're supposed to won.

Atlanta is currently a 2.5 point favorite. Usually, the home team gets 3.

See what I mean.

AFC Divisional Battle: Ravens/Steelers

What a game to kick off the NFL playoff games tomorrow. You have most likely the hardest hitting rivalry in the league with the Baltimore Ravens traveling to Heinz Field to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

For the season, the teams split their two affairs. The Ravens won the first game in week 4 at Pittsburgh 17-14. That was the last game of Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger's suspension. The Steelers returned the favor in week 13 by beating the Ravens in Baltimore 13-10. Yes, I expect the same type of games as the first two meetings these two teams had during the regular season.

Game Time: 4:30 PM ET
Network: CBS
Announcers: Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf
Site: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh

The Steelers get the game at home due to winning the AFC North title and being the #2 seed in the AFC. Will that provide enough for Pittsburgh to advance? We'll see.

When the Steelers have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	23.4 (12th)	345.3 (14th)	225.1 (14th)	120.2 (11th)
defense	16.9 (3rd)	318.9 (10th)	224.9 (21st)	93.9 (5th)

As I have previously stated, the first time these two teams squared off, Ben Roethlisberger did not play. The Steelers just have a different air about them when he's leading the offense. They seem more confident. They actually are a bit more explosive only because Roethlisberger can take a play that has broken down and achieve positive yardage.

Image: Jeffrey Beall/Flickr

That's created a bit of a change in what was once a primarily rushing team. THey can still pound the ball with Rashard Mendenhall, but now, the Steelers have this ability to throw.

On one side, there's Hines Ward. He's as tested as any receiver in the NFL. For the last couple of seasons, it seems like people want to write him off. All Ward does is go out and compete. Then, you look on the other side and see Mike Wallace.

Wallace had a sensational regular season. He led the Steelers in receptions (60), receiving yards (1,257) , TD receptions (10) and yards per catch (21.0). To say he's a deep threat is an understatement, but Wallace can run with the ball after a catch.

For years, we've heard all the pleasantries about the Ravens defense. And every bit if it is well deserved. The philosophy hasn't changed over the last decade, hit 'em and hit 'em harder. Seems simplistic, but don't be fooled. When your defense can routinely run two certain Hall of Famers out there (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed), you better hope your head is on a swivel. Oh, they have both probably seen every formation this Steelers offense can muster.

If there is one weakness on the Ravens defense, it is defending the pass. Last week against the Chiefs, the Ravens secondary devoured a playoff rookie in Chiefs QB Matt Cassel. Getting pressure on Roethlisberger isn't always a good thing because he is so strong, he can get out of potential sack situations. And there's the added factor of making something out of nothing.

The guy across the line of scrimmage this week is no playoff rookie. He owns a pair of Super Bowl rings. I look for the Steelers to maybe find other ways to utilize Wallace and his speed. Bubble screens and a reverse or two may be just the ting to keep that Ravens D line from over committing.

When the Ravens have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	22.3 (16th)	322.9 (22nd)	208.4 (20th)	114.4 (14th)
defense	14.5 (1st)	276.8 (2nd)	214.1 (12th)	62.8 (1st)

The Ravens are a running offense. That's the mantra we've been hearing for years. It's true, but the NFL universe is waiting for Joe Flacco to bust out. He performed well aslt week against a decent Kansas City defense. I said decent, not great. That's the task for Flacco this week. Can he duplicate that against the Steelers?

For last week, Flacco posted numbers of 25-34, 265 yards and 2 TD in the Ravens 30-7 stomping of the Chiefs. Considering his last couple of playoff games were anything but good, he did manage to instill a bit of self confidence. Plus, knowing what's across the line will only aid him.

Image: Keith Allison/Flickr

And Flacco may have helped TE Todd Heap rediscover the Fountain of Youth. Heap caught a Ravens playoff record 10 balls for 108 yards. Heap will need a similar performance (I'm guessing about 7 catches for 70-80 yards would be good) for The Ravens to open the field up a bit for RB Ray Rice.

The Ravens offense is practically built around Rice. Rice is emerging as one of the top duel threat backs in the NFL. Last week, he only rushed for 57 yards and only caught five passes. That may be a good thing. He didn't have to absorb as much punishment as he will this week. He'll be a bit fresher, but not much. The Ravens are operating on one less day.

Like Heap came through last week, add WR Anquan Boldin to the list this week. If a Flacco to Boldin connection can be established, that means two things. One is Flacco is getting protection. Two is that Boldin is muscling his way through a pretty darn good secondary. The pass is one are where the Steelers can be had if executed properly.

With the week off, S Troy Polamalu received a much needed rest. That spells bad news for the Ravens. But the Steelers are much more the the long locked one. LB James Harrison is one of the elite defenders in the NFL. He can rush the passer, stop the running game and defend the pass. The Ravens will have to know where #98 is at all times.

And do not underestimate the Steelers D line. While the Ravens D line grabs a fair amount of press because of Haloti Ngata, these guys: Ziggy Hood, Chris Hoke, Casey Hampton, and Brett Keisel, know their roles and the reason the linebackers get all the glory. A thankless job, but these four are more than willing to accept that.

Overall, it's always hard to go against the home team in a playoff game. We saw how that worked out last week as the home team only won one of the four games (Seattle). And the Ravens can win in Pittsburgh...but not this week.

The extra time for the Steelers and one less day for the Ravens has me sold.

Sunday NFL Playoff Games: Packers/Eagles

All eyes will be on the quarterback matchup in this one. You have the still polarizing Michael Vick leading the Philadelphia Eagles. On the other sideline, it's the one of the league's top 5 QBs in Aaron Rodgers for the Green Bay Packers. This could unfold into a high scoring affair.

Green Bay Packers v. Philadelphia Eagles
Game Time: Sunday, Jan. 9 @ 4:30 PM ET
Network: FOX
Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman

The Linc will be in an uproar. We all know that Philly sports crowds can be unforgiving for their team and the opponent. You don't need to pay a whole lot of attention to the announcing. Listen for the crowd. They'll let you know what's happening.

When the Eagles have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	27.4 (3rd)	389.4 (2nd)	244.1 (9th)	145.2 (5th)
defense	15.0 (2nd)	309.1 (5th)	194.2 (5th)	114.9 (18th)

No secrets here for Philly. The ball is in the redefined hands of Vick. When he was a Falcon, it was basically watch Michael run. It can transpire into that still, but the Eagles have weapons the Vick-led Falcons teams didn't have.

Look at the receivers he has. Speed with both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Consistency with Jason Avant. A more than capable TE in Brent Celek. A RB that can catch and run in LeSean McCoy. And you have to worry about Vick and his talent, too. Hard to fathom this team didn't lead the NFL in total offense. How didn't they?

If Vick must run a lot, the Eagles may not win.
Image by Ed Yourman via Flickr

For the past few seasons, the Eagles have evolved into an offense that throws the ball more than anyone. While that's a nice aspect to have, they have become weak in the running game. The past couple of seasons, Philly has lacked that one play that can provide just one yard. How often do they get stuffed in those situations? Plenty. And playoff football almost demands you be able to rush. While the numbers point out that Philly has been successful in 2010, a ,lot of that can be attributed to Vick and his scrambles.

For the Eagles to continue the trek to Dallas, LeSean McCoy must establish himself in the ground game. That will do two things. Limit the hits on Vick and opposing offenses will have to respect the fact the Philly is willing to run the ball with McCoy. A healthy Vick is a lethal Vick especially in the passing attack.

But the Pack offers resistance, mostly in grounding the passing game. If you're to get them, you must be able to run the ball on them. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers, one of the NFL's best DCs, will have his guys ready. A fervent pass rush shold make for an interesting matchup of the Packers O line and the Eagles D line and LBs.

When the Packers have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	24.2 (10th)	358.1 (9th)	257.8 (5th)	100.4 (24th)
defense	23.6 (21st)	327.2 (12th)	216.8 (15th)	110.4 (15th)

When RB Ryan Grant went down during the week 1 game between these two teams, I immediately thought the Packers would struggle to even make the playoffs. I was correct in that, and Green Bay had to defeat the Chicago Bears last week to become a wild card. No running game (24th overall) meant opposing defenses simply had to go after QB Aaron Rodgers.

A facet of Rodgers that gets lost,
his running ability. Image by
Darin House via Flickr

Didn't that guy take enough sacks in 2009? And now he's been concussed twice in 2010 from hits. He still takes too many. And there's has been no one that can run the ball for Green Bay. That may well prove to be the Achilles heel on down the line (if the Packers make it past this game) if no running game emerges for Green Bay.

But people think of the Rodgers and his stables of receivers. Losing TE JerMichael Finley early in the season didn't slow down the aerial assault. Like the Eagles, the Packers have three gifted receivers. Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and James Jones are as good as any trio in the league. And don't forget Jordy Nelson either.

The Philly defense? Not near what we saw in the past. They'll still blitz you almost every down, but the effectiveness isn't the same under former DC Jim Johnson. After Johnson's passing prior to last season, Eagles opponents knew what was coming and couldn't stop it. Not that way now. Philly ranks in the middle in both the pass and rush.

And you really need to ask yourself two questions this if your Green Bay: Where's Asante Samuel? Where's Trent Cole? If you answer those and can avoid them, you're better off...and most likely going to win.

This game will boil down to two things: Can Green Bay find a running game and can Michael Vick not receive so many hits.

They say defense wins in the postseason, but at times this year, if you bet against Vick, he made you pay.

Sunday NFL Playoff Games: Ravens/Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs emerged with the AFC crown among many critics.

Baltimore Ravens v. Kansas City Chiefs
Game time: Sunday, Jan. 9 @ 1:00 PM ET
Network: CBS
Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms

The Chiefs posted a 7-1 at Arrowhead Stadium, a tough place for any opponent to play. Again, among many critics. The Chiefs only home loss came just last week at the hand of the Oakland Raiders, a team that finished 8-8. For those seven home wins, their opponents had a combined record of 42-70 (.375). The only team with a winning record among those seven wins was an opening week win against the San Diego Chargers (9-7).

When the Chiefs have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	22.9 (14th)	349.7 (12th)	185.5 (30th)	164.2 (1st)
defense	16.9 (3rd)	318.9 (10th)	224.9 (21st)	93.9 (5th)

This really will be the crux of the game, the Chiefs top ranked running attack against the Ravens vaunted run defense. Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles has enjoyed back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons. Bringing in Thomas Jones only helped that matter. Jones saw a reduced role compared to the fact that he was coming off his best season as a pro just last season in New York as a Jet. Still, it's close to being the best 1-2 punch among RBs in the NFL.

Charles is evolving into a complete back.
Image: BabyBell11 via Flickr

And don't fall asleep on Charles as a receiver. The RB on the other sideline (Ray Rice) receives praises for how involved he is in the Ravens passing attack, but Charles is slowly improving in that area as well. For 2010, Charles had 45 catches for 468 yards. Nice average to go along with that.

But departing offensive coordinator Charlie Weis found just enough of a passing attack to keep opposing offenses honest. His goal coming in was to fix the QB. Well, I don't think it's completely fixed, but Weis did mange to get a bit more out of QB Matt Cassel than head coach Todd Haley got out of him in 2009. WR Dwayne Bowe had a tremendous season in leading the NFL with 15 TD catches. And keep this in mind: The Ravens are a tad soft at the corner.

But don't go picking on the Ravens secondary too much. There's this guy named Reed that will make you pay. And the one guy he will have his eyes on is TE Tony Moeaki.

When the Ravens have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	22.3 (16th)	322.9 (22nd)	208.4 (20th)	114.4 (14th)
defense	20.4 (11th)	330.2 (14th)	219.9 (17th)	110.2 (14th)

One guy will be in the Chiefs defense's crosshairs, RB Ray Rice. Rice led the Ravens in rushing (1,220), was second in receptions (63, only 1 behind team leader Anquan Boldin) and fourth in receiving yards (556). Rice is the oil that makes the machine go. So KC defensive coordinator Romeo Crenell has a simple way of stopping the Ravens, right?

A Flacco air raid would spell
doom for the Chiefs
Image: intothelens4149 via Flickr

Pretty much. The Ravens do go as Rice goes, but don't pay too much attention to him. While Boldin did not have the success this season as he has in the past in Arizona, he can and will bite you. And don't forget the like of Derrick Mason, T.J. Houshmanzadeh and Todd Heap. That means QB Joe Flacco could really be the man on the spot.

We've been hearing how good Flacco is, but I have yet to see him have that one standout game where I can emphatically so he's arrived. He's pretty much in the same as Trent Dilfer was when the Ravens won it all a few years back.

How do the Ravens score? They're not exactly a scoreboard busting offense, but the Chiefs defense can be had if Baltimore can simply maintain balance between the rush and the pass and utilize the clock to their full advantage. That will mean a lot of Rice. You do dance with the one that brought ya!

And here's another aspect to consider. The Chiefs offense isn't explosive either. Put together long touchdown scoring drives. If the Ravens O can do that, I see no reason why they don't leave Arrowhead as the winners.

Saturday NFL Playoff Games: Jets/Colts

The second of tomorrow's games will take us to Lucas Oil Stadium, home of Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.

We've already heard Jets head coach belly aching about how Manning is wearing on his teams (Remember that Ryan was previously the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens). Here's the TV info...

Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
Network: NBC
Announcers: Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth

A rematch of last season's AFC championship game. The Colts won that one, 30-17. The Jets return to hopefully extract a bit of revenge for not only that game, but for Ryan as well.

When the Colts have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	27.2 (4th)	380.8 (4th)	288.1 (1st)	92.7 (29th)
defense	19.0 (6th)	291.5 (3rd)	200.6 (6th)	90.9 (3rd)

This is the matchup to watch: Darelle Revis and Pierre Garcon. Antonio Cromartie is nursing a bad groin (don't go there) and there's no way Ryan will pit Cromartie against the Colts fastest receiver. Jets fans better hope that Revis is finally 100% back from hammie issues, too.

The weirdest stat is how low the Colts are in running the ball in comparison to how much they throw. So how does the Colts offense function so well? Play action works with #18 back there. Plus, the Colts run the ball just enough so that opponents have to respect it.

The burning question will be who else will be able to help Manning besides Garcon? Does it really matter? If he's on the field, Manning will find him. He always does.

When the Jets have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	22.9 (13th)	351.0 (11th)	202.6 (22nd)	148.4 (4th)
defense	24.2 (23rd)	341.6 (20th)	214.6 (13th)	127.0 (25th)

Where do you start here? Easy. LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene. The Jets must get the rushing attack going full bore. That is the glaring weakness of the COlts defense. They can rush a QB, but they can be pushed around. That was the theory heading into last year's AFC championship game. But for some odd reason, when the playoffs roll around, the Colts D toughens up against the run.

A good sight for Jets fans. No Freeney or Mathis.
Image by Ed Yourdon via Flickr

If the Jets cannot run, I look for QB Mark Sanchez to endure plenty of punishment at the hands of Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Those two will simply be pinning their ears back and going for the sack. But the Jets do have a couple of nice receivers.

Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes must be on the ready to bail out Sanchez in blitzing situations. And they might want to hold on to the ball, too. Both can develop cases of the "dropsies".

A high powered offense against a rugged defense. A running offense against a perceived weak defense. Take your pick here, right?

I never bet against Manning.

Saturday NFL Playoff Games: Saints/Seahawks

The opening week of the NFL playoffs commences tomorrow. And what an intriguing first game we have, the defending Super Bowl champs, the New Orleans Saints (11-5) traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks (7-9) at Qwest Field. Upon the opening kickoff the Seahawks will make dubious NFL history. They will become the first team with a losing record to host a playoff game.

Game time: 4:30 PM ET
Network: NBC
Announcers: Tom Hammond and Mike Mayock (Yep, same guys that do Notre Dame games for NBC)

This is a rematch of a week 11 affair in which the Saints defeated the Seahawks, 34-19. That game was played at the Superdome.

When the Seahawks have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	19.4 (23rd)	297.8 (28th)	208.8 (19th)	89.0 (31st)
defense	19.2 (7th)	306.2 (4th)	193.9 (4th)	112.3 (16th)

Looking at merely the raw numbers here, you have to wonder how the Seahawks will be able to move the ball. The way in is to run the ball. Problem is, the Seahawks can't. They do have two nice running backs in Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett. Plus, the longer your offense stays on the field, the less the Saints O is. With Matthew Hasselbeck being names the starter, that does help. Hasselbeck has started 9 playoff games during his career with a 4-5 record.

Look for the wily vet to go one of two ways: He's able to nitpicks his way through an excellent pass defense OR he throws four picks and the Seahawks look terrible.

And that's no ordinary defense. The Saints actually improved their D from '09 to '10. Much improved. In looking at the above table, here are the Saints defensive rankings (going across the table): 13th, 25th, 26th, 21st. Fourth from 21st overall? That's mind boggling. That isn't only a tribute to the personnel, how about defensive coordinator Gregg Williams? The guys had another year to adjust to his style and has that ever paid off.

Biggest issue for New Orleans will be if starting safety Malcolm Jenkins can give it a go. After being the Saints first round pick in 2009 as a corner, Jenkins successfully made the switch. He's been the secondary's best player this season.

When the Saints have the ball...

	Scoring (Rk)	Total Yds (Rk)	Pass Yds (Rk)	Rush Yds (Rk)
offense	24.0 (11th)	372.5 (6th)	277.6 (3rd)	94.9 (28th)
defense	25.4 (25th)	368.6 (27th)	249.6 (27th)	118.9 (21st)

Everyone has been heaping on the Saints offense this season. There's been some reasons why the champs have struggled, but this offense could even struggle more in this game than last week against the Buccaneers. And, yes, I am considering the fact that Seattle possesses a porous defense. But they will struggles for various reasons.

Can Bush be "the guy"?
Image by Cvalentine via Flickr

First, Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were placed on IR this past week. That leaves Reggie Bush and former Seahawk Julius Jones to tote the rock. Ivory led the team in rushing during the regular season with 719 yards. Thomas was second with only 269. That leaves the load to Bush and Jones, who combined had 343. Injuries ravaged the Saints backfield all season.

And Drew Brees of 2010 wans't the Drew Brees of 2009 either. He threw more picks (11 in '09 to 22 in '10), a lower completion percentage (70.6 in '09 compared to 68.1 for '10) and less passes of 20+ yards (69 in '90 with 57 for '10). Still, Brees, out of necessity, threw for almost 275 more yards in 2010 (4,388 in '09 and 4,620 in '10).

Yes, it will boil down to Brees and his ability to avoid the pick and the Saints must establish some facet of a running game just to keep Seattle's Swiss cheese defense honest.

The X factor is without a doubt the Seattle crowd. Even though Qwest Field is an open air stadium, it has been said repeatedly that this is the loudest crowd in the league. Pete Carroll and the rest of the Seahawks better hope that's the case or it could be a long game.

NFL Monday Night Preview

Tennessee Titans (3-2) v. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)


I didn't think too much of this matchup when I initially saw it on the docket for Monday night games. Now, it's to see who stays tied atop the AFC South and who dwells at the bottom...but only a game out.

Tonight's games will provide us with two of the NFL's premier running backs with Tennessee's Chris Johnson and Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew. But it will go beyond that. I truly believe that the quarterbacks could very well determine the outcome in this contest.

Neither the Titans QB Vince Young nor the Jags QB David Garrard throw for a lot of yards. Young is averaging only 137 yards a game while Garrard sits at 158. The strangest thing is that both Young and Garrard are in the upper half of the NFL in QB rating. That leads a lot of stat geeks into thinking that QB rating as a whole is overrated. It is to an extent.

In fact, if you look at the league leaders in receptions or receiving yards, you will not see a single receiver from either of these teams listed.

NFL Week 6 - Late Games

The later slate of games brings us two Super Bowl hopefuls that have seen little success to date.

New York Jets (4-1) v. Denver Broncos (2-3)

Jets: Did you really think the Jets would be this successful running the ball without Thomas Jones? I know I didn't. They rank #1 in the NFL with 165.2 yards a game. But the clincher for the Jets O has been the maturation process of QB Mark Sanchez. He's only averaging 172 yards a game through the air but his 91.7 QB rating is legit. The only stat that he needs to improve on is completion percentage which stands at 55.1%. He has yet to throw a pick and that adds even more to his maturity.

The major aid to Sanchez has been RB LaDainian Tomlinson. His rebirth in a Jets uniform has many pondering if he just threw the towel in while at San Diego. He has become a focal point for the Jets O and that has given the future Hall of Famer new life.

But the Jets calling card in without a doubt the defense, right? Maybe not as much this season as last season. The Jets sit 11th overall. You can't really run on them (4th), but they are vulnerable through the air (23rd). Revis Island is a gametime decision and LB Calvin Pace will most likely see playing time. Both provide a big boost.

Broncos: Stop me if you've heard this before. Kyle Orton is one of four quarterbacks to average over 300 passing yards a game. I know it's hard to believe, but it's true. Orton averages 347 yards a contest, second in the league. A far cry from his days in Chicago. I never felt like he was given a fair shake there and Josh McDaniels has provided Orton that opportunity. Paid off so far.

The reason for Orton's numbers and success is the lack of a healthy running game. the last two seasons have brought almost revolving door effect on the running back position. Not due to lack of production, but by injury. Well, that and only having a 2.3 average per rushing attempt. Orton has had to be the one.

Where Denver will have to win this game is with its porous rushing defense. The Jets present a huge dilemma. The NFL's #1 rushing offense against the Broncos 25th rush defense. If someway, somehow the Broncos can slow up the Jets running game and force New York to turn to Sanchez to beat them, then there's hope.

What to watch: The Jets O line. If they create holes, the Broncos are in for a long, long, long day.

Network/Time/Announcers: CBS/4:05 PM ET/Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf