Sunday, October 17, 2010

NFL Week 6 - Late Games

The later slate of games brings us two Super Bowl hopefuls that have seen little success to date.

New York Jets (4-1) v. Denver Broncos (2-3)

Jets: Did you really think the Jets would be this successful running the ball without Thomas Jones? I know I didn't. They rank #1 in the NFL with 165.2 yards a game. But the clincher for the Jets O has been the maturation process of QB Mark Sanchez. He's only averaging 172 yards a game through the air but his 91.7 QB rating is legit. The only stat that he needs to improve on is completion percentage which stands at 55.1%. He has yet to throw a pick and that adds even more to his maturity.

The major aid to Sanchez has been RB LaDainian Tomlinson. His rebirth in a Jets uniform has many pondering if he just threw the towel in while at San Diego. He has become a focal point for the Jets O and that has given the future Hall of Famer new life.

But the Jets calling card in without a doubt the defense, right? Maybe not as much this season as last season. The Jets sit 11th overall. You can't really run on them (4th), but they are vulnerable through the air (23rd). Revis Island is a gametime decision and LB Calvin Pace will most likely see playing time. Both provide a big boost.

Broncos: Stop me if you've heard this before. Kyle Orton is one of four quarterbacks to average over 300 passing yards a game. I know it's hard to believe, but it's true. Orton averages 347 yards a contest, second in the league. A far cry from his days in Chicago. I never felt like he was given a fair shake there and Josh McDaniels has provided Orton that opportunity. Paid off so far.

The reason for Orton's numbers and success is the lack of a healthy running game. the last two seasons have brought almost revolving door effect on the running back position. Not due to lack of production, but by injury. Well, that and only having a 2.3 average per rushing attempt. Orton has had to be the one.

Where Denver will have to win this game is with its porous rushing defense. The Jets present a huge dilemma. The NFL's #1 rushing offense against the Broncos 25th rush defense. If someway, somehow the Broncos can slow up the Jets running game and force New York to turn to Sanchez to beat them, then there's hope.

What to watch: The Jets O line. If they create holes, the Broncos are in for a long, long, long day.

Network/Time/Announcers: CBS/4:05 PM ET/Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf



Oakland Raiders (2-3) v. San Francisco 49ers (0-5)

Raiders: Oakland should be 3-2 and in second place in the AFC West. But we'll leave the Arizona game out of this conversation...for now.

The one aspect missing from the Raiders last season was success in running the ball. The O-line wasn't exactly holding up its end of the bargain. 2010 is a different story. The Raiders are 6th with 134.2 yards a game. And RB Darren McFadden is showing flashes why he was selected as the 4th overall pick in 2008. He is questionable for this game due to hamstring.

That makes life for QB Bruce Gradkowski a bit easier. Gradkowski was inserted as the starter after week 2 and Oakland's offense has responded. But the question within the pass offense is the same...where are the wide receivers? TE Zach Miller leads the team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD. Gradkowski must find another target. He's also questionable due to his shoulder so Jason Campbell could get the call.

If you're going to beat the Raiders, you have to run on them. They rank 31st and limit teams to only 198 yards passing a game.

49ers: Where do you start? QB Alex Smith has not performed as well as most had hoped. I stress, hoped. Wait. Aren't the Niners 11th in the league in passing? Why is it all on Smith? It shouldn't be despite a 6/9 TD/INT ratio.

The running game has been non-existent. RB Frank Gore is averaging only 3.5 yards a carry and 64.4 yards a game. Most Niners fans would point to Gore as the one thing they could rely on in 2010. It hasn't evolved that way. Maybe having two rookies on the O-line (Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis, both 1st round picks) has led to the decline. Gore has actually been more pivotal in the passing game.

If you want to point to one thing as the reason for San Fran's struggles, it could easily be aimed at the defense. 17th overall, 18th against the run, 21st against the pass, 27th in scoring. Be honest, we all thought the Niners would play solid defense. Hasn't come to be. If San Francisco is to turn the season around, it has to start on this side of the ball.

The defense was to be the reason the 49ers were picked (by some) to go a long way in the playoffs. This is the point where I would cue the old Jim Mora "Playoffs?" deal, but it's still not beyond reach considering the 49ers are in the NFC West, possibly the weakest division in the NFL.

What to watch: Gore. The Raiders will give up some yards here and Gore must exploit their weakness. A big weakness.

Network/Time/Announcers: CBS/4:05 PM ET/Bill Macatee and Rich Gannon

Dallas Cowboys (1-3) v. Minnesota Vikings (1-3)

Cowboys: Oh, boy. Doom and gloom already in Dallas, huh? They can right themselves with a road win today. And to do that, Dallas must establish the run. Hard to believe with the talent at running back that the Cowboys are still so willing to throw the ball all over the lot.

No matter what a few may think, it doesn't all fall on QB Tony Romo. That rests on the OC, Jason Garrett. A call here, a call there and the Cowboys could be, (wait for it) 4-0. Seriously. They have been in every game but they either calling stupid plays (Washington loss) or shooting themselves in the foot with penalties (Chicago, Washington).

Dallas was once down by 14 last week against the Titans. They managed to pull even in the fourth quarter. Yes, the passing game had much to do with it, but I've already seen that the game cannot be totally placed in Romo's hands.

From a yardage perspective, Dallas' defense has played well. But when you look more into the numbers, you see that the Cowboys D appears to be on a short field. They're 8th overall in yards allowed (12th v. the run, 12th v. the pass), but they allow 21.8 points a game, 21st in the NFL.

Vikings: QB Brett Favre hasn't had a good season to date...on or off the field. We all heard about the text messaging fiasco (he'll meet with the league on Tuesday), but he just hasn't produced the same 2009 magic. Far from it. Favre has as many INT this season than he did in all of last season.

He's also 30th in QB rating. Only Sam Bradford, Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen have a lower QB rating. That's two rookies and a QB that has been replaced as a starter. To put that more into perspective, Bradford has more TD passes (8-7) and more yards (1,159-861). Granted, Favre had a bye week, but it's by almost 300 yards.

You can't point to the Vikings defense either. They haven't been as stingy against the run (14th), but they have locked down against the pass (6th). The pass rush is relentless and the pressure alone can divert an opposing QB's attention. The Vikes only own 6 sacks.

Yes, you could point to one person here and be correct.

What to watch: Dallas' play calling on offense. I already pointed out that I think this is a big issue. If they are unsuccessful running the ball on a couple of plays, Garrett's penchant is to throw, throw, throw. Won't beat the Vikings that way. Let that front four pin their ears back and you do spell certain doom.

Network/Time/Announcers: FOX/4:15 PM ET/Thom Brennaman and Troy Aikman

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) v. Washington Redskins (3-2)

Colts: Ok. Peyton Manning is still Peyton Manning. Reggie Wayne is till Reggie Wayne. But it's the same old song and dance with the Colts. They don't really run the ball well (3.2 yards a rush) and they don't stop the run well (4.8 yards a carry).

The offense doesn't really need a lot of yards from the running game. The have the most prolific pass offense in the league. Yes, I said it. Manning, Wayne. Clark. All Pro-Bowl players. And now you throw Austin Collie in the mix. They run the ball just enough to force teams to respect the fact that they are willing to try. You do have to be aware of Joseph Addai and Donald Brown. They can break of a good run now and then.

Yes, it's the run defense that has prevented the Colts from being so-called "world beaters". We know the offense doesn't have to be the field for extended periods of time (just ask the Miami Dolphins), but at some point you have to get a hit on the oxygen. The telling stat is that S Antoine Bethea leads the Colts in tackles. In fact, three of the top five in tackles are those that play in the secondary. Don't like to see a safety leading the team in tackles only because that means the opponents are getting into your secondary when they run.

Redskins: Washington has been a Jekyll and Hyde team this year. In week 1, the received a gift from the Cowboys...twice. Week 2 saw the Skins give one to the Texans in losing a 17 point lead. They completely lost their way in week 3 against the Rams. They hung on to beat Philly in week 4 and had to come from behind last week to beat the Packers in OT. Five games and all have been a roller coaster ride. Better get the antacid.

The offense has relied mostly on Donovan McNabb's arm. There's been virtually no running game (25th). But with that drop in rushing has come the "rebirth" of Santana Moss. No, he didn't go away. He was just less visible. McNabb has clearly made the vet his #1.

The defense has been saddled with the old Albert Haynesworth issue. I honestly think it has been a distraction, too. They're not stopping the run (19th) or the pass (30th). It could be simply growing pains under new DC Jim Haslett, too. A brand new scheme and players are still having to adjust to new roles. With the talent on that side of the ball, once everyone gets on the same page, the outlook is brighter than it currently is.

What to watch: Redskins secondary. With LeRon Landry and DeAngelo Hall, the matchups against Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne appear almost to be even. It's the others that could make or break the Redskins tonight.

Network/Time/Announcers: NBC/8:20 PM ET/Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth

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