NFL Monday Night Preview

Tennessee Titans (3-2) v. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2)


I didn't think too much of this matchup when I initially saw it on the docket for Monday night games. Now, it's to see who stays tied atop the AFC South and who dwells at the bottom...but only a game out.

Tonight's games will provide us with two of the NFL's premier running backs with Tennessee's Chris Johnson and Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew. But it will go beyond that. I truly believe that the quarterbacks could very well determine the outcome in this contest.

Neither the Titans QB Vince Young nor the Jags QB David Garrard throw for a lot of yards. Young is averaging only 137 yards a game while Garrard sits at 158. The strangest thing is that both Young and Garrard are in the upper half of the NFL in QB rating. That leads a lot of stat geeks into thinking that QB rating as a whole is overrated. It is to an extent.

In fact, if you look at the league leaders in receptions or receiving yards, you will not see a single receiver from either of these teams listed.

That tells you the strength of each of these teams. So, both teams like to run the ball. And they will, too.

Tennessee's Chris Johnson isn't seeing the same success in 2010 that he did 2009. Johnson is only averaging 97.0 yards a game, fifth in the league. Teams have somewhat figured out to not over pursue the speedy back. Opponents have also learned to attempt to eliminate the edges. Push Johnson back into the field and not let him pop one outside. This could be reflected in CJ's average per carry of 4.3. For all of 2009, that was 5.6. Sure, Johnson can still run between the tackles. Do not be fooled into thinking he can't, but he can abuse opposing tacklers if he has the opportunity to bust out wide.

Just look at Johnson's long runs in Tennessee's wins against their losses. With a 3-2 record, CJ has long runs of 76 (OAK), 42 (NYG) and 42 (DAL) in Titans wins. In their two losses, those numbers are drastically reduced to 11 (PIT) and 8 (DEN). Delve a bit more. Johnson rushed for at least 125 yards in all three wins and did not crack 55 yards in the two losses.

But tonight, it's Jacksonville and the Jags do sport the 12th ranked run defense. The plus may be that the Jags have allowed 6 rushing TD so far this season.

Jacksonville's Jones-Drew is a bit different. He doesn't possess the speed of Johnson (and I don't know if any other back in the NFL that does), but MJD will not hesitate to cut back inside either. He holds an average of 81.2 rushing yards a game, tied for tenth. Don't get me wrong here. Jones-Drew does have the ability to get to the edges. Despite being listed at only 5-7 and 208, he's more of a powerful back compared to Johnson. Jones-Drew has seen his average per carry dip in 2010, too. 4.5 last season compared to 4.0 this season.

The Titans do pose a bit of an issue as they are 10th against the run. And that's not all. The Titans have permitted only one rushing TD this season.

As I said earlier, this game will depend on the QB position. Between Young and Garrard, whoever can open up a the passing game the most, will help lead their team to the win. And it's not always an issue of the deep ball either. Get into a rhythm and string a few completions together. Keep the opposing defense guessing a bit. We all know they will run, but it will be whoever achieves the most success in passing that wins this one.

And when comparing the defensive rankings against the pass, neither team possess a lock down unit. Tennessee ranks 26th against the pass while Jacksonville resides in 29th. With those rankings, the defense should be at the ready for both teams. They may see more balls in the air than usual with these two teams.

Unless CJ or MJD get on a major roll.