Saturday, November 07, 2009

NFL Week 9 Previews - Late Games

A clash between NFC East foes punctuates the late Sunday games with first place in the division up for grabs.

Carolina (3-4) @ New Orleans (7-0)

Panthers: If Carolina holds out any hopes of making the playoffs, this is a must win. And all signs point to the Panthers as they have won seven straight in the Superdome. The scariest part is the that Panthers continue to run the ball right at defenses and opponent cannot stop them even though we all know the run is coming. WR Steve Smith might have felt a little more important last week. He caught a TD, his first of the season. But QB Jake Delhomme must do better than a 7-14, 90 yard effort like he had at Arizona last week. He didn't commit a turnover, but a confident Delhomme makes this offense so much better. It will be a battle of wills when the Panthers are on defense as they have the best pass defense in the NFL. The difference in this game may come down to special teams. The Panthers are not very good on returns or on coverage. Plus, the status of K John Kasay is in doubt due to a groin injury.

Atlanta Falcons v New Orleans Saints Saints: A short work week leads to a game that should concern the Saints faithful. New Orleans hung on to defeat Atlanta last Monday night. While QB Drew Brees gets most of the press, it's the running game of Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas (left) and Reggie Bush that deserves the accolades. Ranking 4th leaguewide, the Saints runnig attack has accounted for 14 rush TD. Over the last two games, Brees has been bitten by a small turnover bug (4 INT and 2 lost fumbles). He cannot afford to continue that play this week against a hungry Panther defense. But the Saints defense has deservedly received credit for the season New Orleans is having. Stopping the 1-2 punch of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams is the first item on their list. Make Delhomme beat you. And he hasn't done that all season.

Fantasy Alert: CAR: RB DeAngelo Williams is a must while Stewart a start is in deeper leagues. Brees is obvious, but also consider all their RBs (Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas, and even Reggie Bush).

Detroit (1-6) @ Seattle (2-5)

Lions: Oh, my. How so you overcome a humiliating home loss such as the one the Lions suffered last week? I don't think you can. WR Calvin Johnson's absence didn't help as his knee continues to give him problems. The more pressing question is how did Detroit only manage one TD against the Rams? The Seashawks have a better defense, and if history repeats, the Lions will have an even tougher go of it this week. The defense played good last week with the only knock was allowing Rams RB Steven Jackson to run all over them.

Arizona Cardinals v Seattle Seahawks Seahawks: QB Matthew Hasselbeck (right) has to love the sight of the Lions defense. And all the other Seahawks offensive players. Looks like a bounceback week for Seattle. Unfortunately, it's been hit or miss with Seattle's offense all this season. This is a week that must be a hit. Look for the defense to apply as much pressure as possible on Lions rookie QB Matthew Stafford. The offense should get back on track against the league's second worst scoring defense.

Fantasy Alert: DET: If WR Calvin Johnson is healthy, he's a go as he creates matchup problems for the Seattle secondary. Check his status and be sure you have an alternative in the late games. Hasselbeck and TE John Carlson are starts. WRs Nate Burleson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are no worse than flex plays.

Tennessee (1-6) @ San Francisco (3-4)

Titans: Finally. But last week wasn't a fluke. Maybe the fact that Vince Young was the QB may lead you to believe that. Don't be fooled. RB Chris Johnson and the Titans O-line v. the 2nd ranked rush defense is a dream matchup. And the Titans cannot afford to stop running as we all know that the chances of Young actually leading Tennessee to a win are, well, slim. The key will be stopping 49ers RB Frank Gore. And they must also have one eye on TE Vernon Davis as he's established himself as QB Alex Smith's favorite target. No team allows more pints than the Titans, but that's only because of a 59 point onslaught at New England.The D showed a little moxie last week.

San Francisco 49ers v Indianapolis Colts 49ers: Frank Gore (left) to the left, Frank Gore to the left, Frank Gore up the middle. Could an offensive gameplan be any easier? Actually, QB Alex Smith will have a chance to put up some good numbers as the Titans are last against the pass (again, I reference the New England game). But just as the Niners want to run with Gore, the Titans will want to run with RB Chris Johnson. See the developing theme? Run the ball and stop the run. An easy defensive gameplan for San Francisco as well.

Fantasy Alert: TEN: You've been riding RB Chris Johnson all year, but he's only delievered more than 10 ponts in 3 of the Titans 7 games. Proceed with caution, but he's the only legit Titan to play. SF: WR Michael Crabtree is a must start even with Alex Smith starting at QB. The Titans allow the most WR points in fantasy football. If you're really thin at QB, Smith might be a decent pickup, but don't expect too much. Gore is a go, too.

San Diego (4-3) @ New York Giants (5-3)

Oakland Raiders v San Diego Chargers Chargers: The Bolts picked up some ground on the Broncos last week. They can make up more this week with a win in the Meadowlands. We all once thought of the Chargers as LT first and throw second. Not any more as San Diego has the 4th ranked pass offense with QB Philip Rivers (right) running the show and the 31st ranked rushing attack. But LT has started to show signs of his former self over the last three games. If the Bolts ground game can continue to gain steam, they will become harder to defend. The one vulnerable spot in San Diego's defense is their inability to stop the run. Don't look now but RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are on the other side of the ball.

Giants: What has happened to the G-Men? Won the first five (the only team over .500 is Dallas) and lost the next three (all three over .500). Now they host the Chargers before their bye. And the Giants are faced with a must win. Going into the bye losing four in a row would be devastating, and head coach Tom Coughlin has said they have a "one game schedule". Getting QB Eli Manning moving back in the right direction would solve a lot of the offensive woes. In New York's wins, Eli has 10 TD, 2 INT with 2 sacks. The three losses have netted 3 TD, 6 INT and 6 sacks. Manning hasn't been the same since his foot injury during the Chiefs game in week 4. He didn't even play a full half the next week and has fallen off severely. The defense has mirrored Eli's performance. The once #1 rated defense has surrendered 112 points in their last three games. Two things: lack of pass rush and a depleted secondary. They must get to QB Philip Rivers or the Giants will be on the down side of a fourth straight loss.

Fantasy Alert: SD: LT is not a bad option at all since New Yok tends to yield a lot of RB points. Rivers and Gates are starts. NYG: Bradshaw is a start and Jacobs is no worse than a flex option if you're strong at RB. Starting WRs Smith, Manningham or Nicks may be no more than a flex as the Bolts do not give WR a lot of points.

Sunday Night
Dallas (5-2) @ Philadelphia (5-2)

Cowboys: QB Tony Romo is on a major roll. 8 TD and 0 INT in his last three games. Now the bad news. Dallas has played Kansas City, Atlanta, and Seattle. Only Seattle is rated above 20th in pass defense. Philly is no pushover against the pass (10th), no pushover against the run (12th), and they're hard to score on (8th). The Cowboys are the owners of the #2 overall offense (#7 passing and #6 rushing). Needless to say, RBs Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice wil be major factors for Dallas. But the main the cog will be TE Jason Witten. Philadelphia allows the second most yards to TE. We all know who's going to get the ball and it's not WR Roy Williams. Where Dallas can be beaten is through the air. Despite seeing a rebirth of the '08 pass rush, Dallas is still in the lower third in pass defense (22nd).

Eagles: QB Donovan McNabb may be in for his best game of the season. Since Dallas can't really defens the pass and Philly is a pass first team, all signs point in McNabb's favor. The Eagles should see RB Brian Westbrook return from his concussion and that means more offense. Strange, but true stat: Philly is 15th in rushing, yet the team leader is LeSean McCoy with only 294 yards. That's only 42 yards per game. The driving force for the Eagles offense has been WR DeSean Jackson. With Jackson's speed, defenses must always double him, and it seems to do little good. TE Brent Celek has evolved into McNabb's favorite target with 37 receptions, best on the Eagles and 4th among all TEs. And the Eagles have continued their blitzing ways on defense. Many had picked Philly to go to the Super Bowl before the season started. Don't see any real reason to change their minds.

Fantasy Alert: DAL: TE Jason Witten is a start. All other bets are off unless you'rea bit thin at RB. If so, Barber can be a great flex option. PHI: McNabb, Jackson and Celek are starts (I love both TEs in this game).

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