Thursday, January 14, 2010

More NFL Playoff Football!

Only the Packers/Cardinals game provided any form of excitement during the NFL's Wild Card Weekend. Maybe we'll be treated to bit more this coming weekend with the Divisional Round. Here's a quick look at the games being played on Saturday.

NFC: Arizona @ New Orleans; 4:30 PM ET, FOX (Kenny Albert, Darryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa)

Most will watch: Cards QB Kurt Warner and Saints QB Drew Brees.
How could you not want to watch these two? Warner absolutely lit up the Packers last week. Warner had more TD (5) than incompletions (4). There's no sign of him slowing down one bit. Warner has excellent postseason numbers. There is the rumor that Warner will retire after this season. I look for the Cards to do all they can to postpone that. If you have any doubt that this guy will end up in Canton, you're simply crazy.

But Saints fans believe they have the league MVP as their QB in Brees. Brees was second in the MVP voting and that vote has many in Louisiana up in arms. There's no question that when Brees gets it going, there's not any QB that's better. He has many so weapons at his disposal. That may have been why he didn't win the MVP.

You should also watch: New Orleans at the beginning of the game.
It's been almost a month since the Saints have played a real game. This is not the time for rust to set in. A quick start is paramount even though we know the Saints have the offensive firepower to come from behind, but so does Arizona.

If New Orleans wins the coin toss, you might see them take the ball first. Get that offense on the field early and see how they react. That side of the ball has not actually performed too well as of late.

But don't forget: the Saints ground attack.
The newest three-headed monster of Pierre Thomas, Mike Ball and Reggie Bush has given New Orleans even more cause to be optomistic. The lack of a running game was viewed as a significant weakness with the Saints offense. Not anymore. Establishing the run would open the passing game even more for Brees. A big benefit for the Saints.

One last thing: the crowd.
We know balls will fill the "air" of the Superdome. The indoors atmosphere, in itself, does not favor either team. It will be how much the crowd stays behind their Saints. If the Cardinals can score early and often, the life of the crowd would immensely diminish. Playoff games don't come around New Orleans too much. The crowd must holdfast and make a difference.

Bottom line: Despite being favored, it almost feels like people are doubting the Saints. With all that's been made of their late season swoon, it's hard to believe that the switch can flipped on. But what can we make of a Cards defense that blew a 21-point lead to the Packers? When Aaron Rodgers had to throw, he did so and he did at will. Brees operates the same way. Neither defense can stop the run and neither defense can stop the pass. The Saints can run while The Cardinals struggle with their running game.

Saints 37, Cards 28...both Warner and Brees pass for over 300 yards but the turnover bug bites the Cards.

AFC: Baltimore @ Indianapolis; 8:15 ET, CBS (Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf)

Most will watch: Colts QB Peyton Manning v. Ravens LB Ray Lewis.
Manning, the first ever 4-time NFL MVP, is a master of ceremonies while on the field. What's a real audible and what isn't? That's the dilemma facing Lewis. Lewis has said he knows the audibles and signals of Tom Brady, but can he say the same for Manning? Can anyone really say that? If there was ever a chess match on a football field, this is it.

You should also watch: Ravens secondary v. Colts receivers and TE Dallas Clark.
As great as the Ravens defense has rebounded this season, it's the secondary that has received the bulk of the criticism. They did help hold the Colts to only 17 points in week 11. They also has 2 INT in that game.

There's a major reason to keep an eye on the Colts receivers. We know Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark have been here before. The same can't be said for Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. How they hold up considering the circumstances should show us exactly how ready the Colts are to make a serious charge for the Lombardi Trophy. If they have a drop or two, the moment could overtake them.

But don't forget: Ravens QB Joe Flacco v. Colts D.
4 of 10, 34 yards, 1 INT. Those were Flacco's stats against the Patriots last week. There's no way Flacco can have a similar game against a much faster and more aggresive defense. I know much has been made about his physical condition, but all must be good since he's not on the injury report (according to NFL.com). If he isn't healthy and can't move about, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will have a field day in the Ravens backfield.

One last thing: Ravens RB Ray Rice.
He had 159 yards on 22 carries and 2 TD against New England. If you take away Rice's 83 yard TD run, that's 76 yards on 21 carries. Not an impressive average. Don't forget that Rice is also valuable in the passing game even though he didn't catch a ball last week. The Ravens do have the luxury of having Willis McGahee if Rice shows signs of struggling. Not a bad "backup" to have.

Bottom line: The Colts may be favored, but the Ravens know they can play with the Colts by that week 11 result. In fact, Baltimore had the lead going into the fourth quarter. Add this to the file: Indy has played no meaningful games in a month. It all points to a Ravens win. The Colts will not take this game lightly as they saw how Baltimore handled the Patriots last week. In similar situations, the Colts are 0-3. That's resting starters for games when they have a first round bye clinched. Not a positive trend.

Colts 24, Ravens 17...the trend is broken.

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