Sunday, February 07, 2010

Super Bowl positional analysis

Update: Dwight Freeney is active for the game.

Just when you've had enough coverage from this year's Super Bowl...here I am.

For the big game today, I'll be looking at the positions and telling who has the advantage.

2010 AFC-NFC Pro Bowl Quarterback:
This is a lot closer than people might think. All Brees has done since his arrival in New Orleans is become the conductor of one the NFL's most potent offenses. The only difference between Brees and Manning is simple. Peyton has a ring.
Advantage: Colts

Running backs:
I don't think this is close. The Saints have three guys (Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, Reggie Bush) that can attack you in three different ways. Joseph Addai did manage 100+ yards against the Jets a couple of weeks ago, so New Orleans had better not sleep on him.
Advantage: Saints

Wide receivers:
Very close here. If you take the top three, it's a push. Colston, Henderson, Meacham v. Wayne, Garcon, Collie. The difference is the #4. New Orleans has Lance Moore. Granted, he was hurt most of the season, but he led the Saints in receiving last year. Something good to fall back on if you need to.
Advantage: Saints

Tight end:
Both Jeremy Shockey and Dallas Clark are Pro-Bowl ends. The main difference between the two is I feel Clark cannot be covered by the Saints linebackers. Clark is essentially a receiver in an end's body. Shockey's got a bum knee, too.
Advantage: Colts

Offensive line:
The Saints line is strong on one side and weak on the other. The same cannot be said for Indy. Jeff Saturday will one day be in Canton.
Advantage: Colts

In viewing the offense:
Colts: 3
Saints: 2

On to the defense:

Defensive line:
Most of the buzz this week has been the status of Colts DE Dwight Freeney. I think he'll play but his ankle will limit his effectiveness. He might be only a third down guy and that would benefit New Orleans. The Saints line is a bit underrated and had pounded Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. Not mobile QBs and neither is Manning.
Advantage: Saints, especially if Freeney doesn't play every down. If Freeney does play every down, it's an advantage to Indy

Linebackers:
The Colts have maybe the fastest backers in the NFL and they can lay a load on you, too. New Orleans combats you with strength, especially with Jonathan Vilma in the middle. The Colts speed has a better chance of nullifying the Saints speed.
Advantage: Colts

Cornerbacks:
Both teams have had injury issues this season, but New Orleans is in much better shape.
Advantage: Saints. Veteran group for the most part.

Safeties:
We all know of the Saints Darren Sharper and the superb year he had. But how many people actually noticed that Melvin Bullitt and Antoine Bethea more than held up their end of the bargain for the Colts.
Advantage: Push

The defenses have that stipulation of Freeney.
Saints: 2
Colts: 1
Push: 1

Kicking game:
Both teams employ a kicker to do one thing, kick field goals. Matt Stover has a major edge on experience, but lacks distance. Garrett Hartley did kick the 40 yarder to beat Minnesota. He has the edge in distance, but lacks experience. The punters could balance each other out if, a big if, Pat McAfee does not punt in Reggie Bush's direction. McAfee is a rookie, too, so that could play into the Saints hands. That might be the biggest key to the game.
Advantage: Colts. I still don't trust Hartley.

Kick/punt returns:
You have Reggie Bush. What else do you need?
Advantage: Saints

Total:
Colts: 5
Saints: 5
Push: 1

That tells you how much of a difference a healthy Freeney makes. I have it even even though the Colts are favored. Most of what we've heard from a defensive standpoint has been Saints DC Gregg Williams and his planning for Peyton Manning. I'm going the other direction. Can Colts DC Larry Coyer develop a successful gameplan against Drew Brees and the Saints offense? That's the biggest question of the game.

For me, I'm still on the fence. Plus, I'm horrible at picking Super Bowls. I know, no guts, no glory.

Colts 34, Saints 31

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