Friday, January 14, 2011

NFC Divisional Battle: Packers/Falcons

The prime time game for tomorrow evening is the Green Bay Packers making a return trip to the Georgia Dome to take on the NFC's #1 seed Atlanta Falcons. In week 12, Atlanta defeated the Packers 20-17. Falcons K Matt Bryant won the game with a 47 yard FG.

The matchup all will want to talk about here is the QBs: Rodgers and Matt Ryan. There is much more than that to this game.

Yes, the Falcons come into this game as the top seed in the NFC. Yes, they have a gifted QB in Ryan. And yes, Ryan's career record at the Georgia Dome is a mind-boggling 20-2. But why do I get the feeling they're being slighted here.

Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
Network: FOX
Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman and Pam Oliver

When the Falcons have the ball...

Scoring (Rk) Total Yds (Rk) Pass Yds (Rk) Rush Yds (Rk)

offense
25.9 (5th) 341.1 (16th) 222.9 (15h)118.2 (12th)

defense
15.0 (2nd) 309.1 (5th) 194.2 (5th) 114.9 (18th)

If you check out the box score from that week 12 meeting, two things jump out at you.

The first is that Ryan only had 197 yards passing with only one TD. FOr the season, Ryan tossed 28 TD with only 9 INT. But I have to ask this: How in the world does Matty Ice only get 197 yards passing? Kind of easy when you have a running back like Michael Turner.

And that's the second thing. Turner rushed for 110 yards and a TD. Turner was 3rd in the NFL in rushing with 1,371 yards. That's the same gameplan in which the Falcons should approach with in this game. Those are both strengths of the Falcons offense. Run the ball and run it some more. When the opposing defense cheats toward the line of scrimmage, hit 'em with a pass. No, the Falcons do possess more than just these two. You don't have to look hard either.

Look out wide an there's WR Roddy White. He led the NFL in receptions with 115. White's 1,389 receiving yards was 2nd behind Denver's Brandon Lloyd. White also hauled in 10 TD passes, too. He can catch long passes or short passes. He will do whatever is asked of him.

Another receiving threat is future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez. He's Ryan's "go to guy". Whenever a play bogs down, you can bet Ryan will look the way of Gonzalez.

But the Packers don't have your ordinary defense. In fact, it's quite good as in the 5th best in yielding yardage. And they have a couple of playmakers on that side of the ball.

The first is LB Clay Matthews. Some are tabbing Matthews as the Defensive Player of the Year. You must account for him on every down and you have to consistently block him. No small task for any O lineman. Matthews sheds blocks as well as any player in the league. His aggressiveness can be exploited though.

And there's last year's Defensive Player of the Year in Charles Woodson. The fomer Heisman winner has carved himself a nice career as a Packer. He aims to keep that going. Look for Woodson to be up against White in man coverage in critical situations.

If Woodson isn't, the Packers do have to other capable corners in Truman Williams and Sam Shields that do have the speed to stay with White. Williams is as good a #2 CB in the NFL. On some teams, he could be a #1.

When the Packers have the ball...

Scoring (Rk) Total Yds (Rk) Pass Yds (Rk) Rush Yds (Rk)

offense
24.2 (10th) 358.1 (9th) 257.8 (5th)100.4 (24th)

defense
18.0 (5th) 332.4 (16th) 226.6 (22nd) 105.9 (10th)

What more can be said of QB Aaron Rodgers. Yes, I feel he's among the top 5 QBs in the NFL. Lofty praise (not because I said this) and Rodgers deserves every bit he receives. In a season that saw the #1 RB (Ryan Grant) go down in week 1, an up and coming TE go by the wayside a couple weeks later (JerMichael Finley) and still fight off opposing rushers due to an O line that was a bit porous, Rodgers still managed Pro Bowl numbers (

There has been one area that Rodgers has been able to count on week in, week out: his receivers. Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jordy Nelson all accepted the challenge. While none of these guys produced eye bulging numbers this season, all are capable of turning a short pass into a long play.

Now, there's this rookie out of Buffalo named James Starks that has briefly revitalized the ground game. No one saw his performance from last coming. But Packers head coach Mike McCarthy saw enough in Starks to let him carry the load.

For the past few years, I've always thought of the Falcons defense as a "bend, but don't break" unit. The 2010 season was no different. They didn't allow a lot of points (5th), but they will yield some yards (16th).

The biggest concern will be putting pressure on Rodgers. DE John Abraham may not be 100% for the game and that could create a gap in the D line. It could also afford Rodgers with just that split second longer to throw. And that could spell doom for the Falcons. Kind of hard to replace Abraham's motor AND his 13 sacks.

The lack of a pass rush was put the corners under more pressure as well. Not like the Falcons has a major cause for concern on that front. Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes are a solid duo that can and will hold their own.

The linebackers are nothing to sneeze at either. There's veteran Mike Peterson to go along with Curtis Lofton and rookie Sean Weatherspoon. Again, solid group, but Peterson's veteran leadership cannot be overlooked here.

This game may boil down to one thing...the return game. The Falcons have just the man in Pro-Bowler Eric Weems.

As I said at the beginning, I feel like the Falcons are receiving no credit for the great season. How do you become the #1 seed yet no one feels like you're supposed to won.

Atlanta is currently a 2.5 point favorite. Usually, the home team gets 3.

See what I mean.

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