Saturday, January 15, 2011

NFC Divisional Game: Seahawks/Bears

The Chicago Bears have a chance for accomplish two things in this game. One is to avenge a 23-20 loss at the hands of Seattle earlier this season. Second, and I'm not so sure this can be done, is silence some of their critics.

I say that last part because the Bears are hosting an 8-9 team. You could conceivably say that Chicago is in a no-win situation there. Still, a win in the playoffs means you play another week.

Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
Network: FOX
Announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa

When the Bears have the ball...

Scoring (Rk) Total Yds (Rk) Pass Yds (Rk) Rush Yds (Rk)

offense
20.9 (21st)289.4 (30th)188.4 (28th)101.0 (22nd)

defense
25.4 (25th)368.6 (27th)249.6 (27th)118.9 (21st)

One of the most frustrating things for Bears fans this past season was trying to determine what type of offense the Bears had? Mike Martz was brought in to upgrade the offense, but that didn't appear to be the case at the beginning even though the Bears were winning. QB Jay Cutler was getting pounded and the O line was porous at best.

Then a switch went was flipped. Martz changed up a few things. He changed protection schemes. He changed Cutler's drops and reads. He involved RB Matt Forte more. Both have made Cutler a better QB. Those games where Cutler reverts to just slinging the ball have diminished.

IMG_1575
(Image: Monica's Dad via Flickr
And when Forte was integrated more in the offense, it become more formidable. Forte's 2009 was near the season he had in 2008 when Forte was the Bears offense. In 2009, defenses keyed on him and he was stifled. The second half of 2010 looked more like the Forte of '08.

But don't think the Bears are just about Cutler and Forte. WRs Johnny Knox and Devin Hester (yes, he is still learning AND improving) come along just like the rest of the offensive unit. And even though TE Greg Olsen has yet to live up to his status as a first round pick, he's become a fave of Cutler.

The bad news for the Seahawks defense isn't that it's not a good unit. It's that their best player, LB Lofa Tatupu, may not be available after suffering a concussion against the Saints. Today will be the day to determine if he's a go. If he can't that leaves a major hole in an already bad defense.

So how did Seattle beat New Orleans last week? The Saints had seven trips in the red zone. They scored four TDs. That's how. I thought turnovers would play a vital role, but they didn't. The turnover battle was even. The Seahawks may have to improve on that this week. The Bears can run the ball where the Saints had issues all season with the rushing attack.

There could be a saving grace here...will the "old" Jay Cutler return? If it does, the Seahawks defense could feat on picks.

When the Seahawks have the ball...

Scoring (Rk) Total Yds (Rk) Pass Yds (Rk) Rush Yds (Rk)

offense
19.4 (23rd) 297.8 (28th) 208.8 (19th)89.0 (31st)

defense
17.9 (4th) 314.3 (9th) 224.2 (20th) 90.1 (2nd)

Last week, RB Marshawn Lynch pulled off one of the greatest runs in playoff history to more or less seal the deal. QB Matthew Hasselbeck had perhaps his best game of the season. It seemed that he rarely missed. When he did, the guy was covered and he was throwing it away.

Matt Hasselbeck
Hasselbeck must be protected (Image Matt McGee via Flickr)
Hasselbeck will be key if the Seahawks are to pull another upset. He has to have the same game tomorrow he had last week. In fact, the whole Seahawks offense must duplicate their efforts in order to win. But can they do such?

Yes, Lynch must pound the ball between the tackles. Yes, Hasselbeck must be around 70% for his completions. Yes, John Carlson must be a factor. Yes, the O line must protect the aging QB. Yes, Mike Williams cannot drop balls. All are musts for Seattle to win.

There will be one difference in this game, LB Lance Briggs. He didn't play the first time. He will be comping at the bit for this go around. And it's an experienced trio at linebacker, Briggs, Brian Urlacher and Pino Tinoisamoa is as good a trio you will find.

Where the Bears upgraded, obviously, was bringing in DE Julius Peppers. And as much as you might think that helped the pass rush, it has helped stopping the run. The Bears were only behind the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2010. That's improvement.

The secondary is a bit underrated. They're aren't a lot of names back there, but they can hang with these Seahawks receivers. In fact, I like CB Charles Tillman. Look for Tillman to be manned up against Mike Williams.

Something that's interesting is that Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said he will punt to Devin Hester. I don't get that. Seattle has a good punter in Jon Ryan. He was one of the top placement punters in the NFL this season. And why put the kind of unnecessary pressure on your coverage teams?

And maybe Carroll is just blowing smoke.

The issue in this game will be can Seattle outscore Chicago. I'm not seeing it, but they did outscore the Saints last week and New Orleans does have a more potent offense that Chicago. But as I said, the Bears can run. If Jay Cutler has 60 pass attempts like Drew Brees did last week, it WILL be a Seahawks victory.

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