NFL Week 12 - Early Games Preview

Time to ramp it up for the playoff push and the early games have severe playoff implications. Houston gets another crack at Indy. The Battle of Ohio, Part II, and The Panthers and Jets play in what might be a "loser's out" game.

Tampa Bay (1-9) @ Atlanta (5-5)

Bucs: You got to believe that the Bucs first year head coach Raheem Morris is already scambling for his job. Just before the season began, Morris fired offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski. Now, Morris has demoted defensive coordinator Jim Bates and Morris has changed the Bucs defensive scheme. The blame has to go somewhere and it looks like Morris may be the one pointing the finger.

Morris has also already made two quarterback changes. Byron Leftwich to Josh Johnson to Josh Freeman (right). With Freeman, turnovers have been a concern. In his first start, Freeman had only 1 INT. He had 3 last week in the Bucs 38-7 loss to New Orleans. Freeman has also fumbled 7 times, but only lost 2. Still, ball security is at a premium for the offensively challenged (29th overall) Buccaneers. Also, consider that Tampa Bay is 29th in time of possession, and you can see part fthe reason the Bucs are 1-9.

Now, the defense. The Bucs once had one of the NFL's most feared units. I said "once had". Being last against the run, next to last in scoring and 27th overall does give you a reputation...a bad one. The one shining piece is the pass defense, ranked 13th, right? They have the 6th most INT. Not so fast, my friend (I'm channelling my inner Lee Corso). The Bucs has allowed the third most passing TD. And tehy have 17 sacks, rating them 28th. Bucs fans, it has to get better, doesn't it?

Falcons: What has happened to the Dirty Birds? They've dropped four of their last five and have fallen to 5-5. Of those four losses, QB Matt Ryan has had only one game where he had more TD than INT and that was last week against the Giants. Here's Ryan's numbers over those five games: 103-188 (54.8%), 1,114 yards, 7 TD and 8 INT. Has Ryan lost a bit of his edge?

That can be corrected a bit as RBs Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood are listed as questionable for this game. Having these guys on board will help Ryan tremendously.

But the defense can shoulder a lot of the blame, too. In Atlanta's last five games, only the Washington Redskins were held below 20 points and the Falcons won that game. In the four losses, it's a different story. Dallas - 37, New Orleans - 35, Carolina - 28, New York Giants - 34. That's 33.5 points a game. They're now bending and breaking.

Miami (5-5) @ Buffalo (3-7)

Dolphins: A long work week is exactly what the doctor ordered for Miami. RB Ricky Williams may be a physical specimen, but he cannot take the pounding he did against Carolina last Thursday. Is it time to ask just a bit more from QB Chad Henne and the 30th ranked passing game? Not necessarily this week, but the time is drawing very close. The Fins are 4th in rushing and the Bills are 31st in defending the run. Look for this possibility: the unwrapping of QB Pat White. If one player can help to limit Williams' workload, it's White. I was a bit surprised that Whit was not even a thought in Miami's last game, but who's to question Tony Sparano.

If you're going to attack Miami, do it through the air. They're mediocre at best (22nd). Plus, Miami has allowed 9 pass plays of 40+ yards, 6th most. But be prepared for a ferocious pass rush as teh Dolphins have 29 which is 5th most. Looks to me like it's hit or miss with the Dolphins pass defense. If you get them one play, they get you the next.

Bills: Did I see that right? T.O. had a phenominal game last week against the Jaguars, 9 cathces for 197 yards and a TD. Yet, the Bills lost. Isn't time the running game got invlved? I mean, Buffalo only has 2 rushing TD. I have to think that RB Marshawn Lynch has not "recovered" from missing the first 3 games of the season due to suspension. In fact, the Bills have not had the leading rusher in any of their own games since RB Fred Jackson way back in week 2 (163 yards v. Tampa Bay).

Something else to keep in mind about the Bills offense. The Bills have had the leading passer three times in their games this season (Trent Edwards twice and Ryan Fitzpatrick last week). In those three games, Buffalo is 0-3. Hmmmm.

For the Bills to have any hope against Miami, stop the run. DT Marcus Stroud's health will be a key. Stroud is listed as questionable and having him available to clog the middle of the field would be a major asset to Buffalo's defense. Add CB Terrence McGee and S Jairus Byrd as important defensive assets. They are two of the reasons the Bills are 9th against the pass. Only the Saints (20) and the Packers (18) currently have more INT than Buffalo (17). Another impressive stat, only the Saints (57.8) allow opposing QB passer rating lower than the Bills (64.5).

Washginton (3-7) @ Philadelphia (6-4)

Redskins: The main issue facing the Redskins is at running back. With both Clinton Portis (concussion) and Ladell Betts (knee) out, Rock Cartwright (right) finally gets his chance. And Cartwright did well last week against the Cowboys in the Redskins 7-6 loss. If Cartwright puts together a good game, that will only aid QB Jason Campbell and the Washington's 21st ranked passing attack. Washington has the talent at WR, but integrating them into the offense has been a major problem. And the Eagles are a top 10 defense (8th overall).

The defense has held its end of the bargain. Only once have the Redskins allowed more than 30 points (Atlanta scored 31). Say what you will about Washington, but the defense (3rd overall) is the main reason the Redskins haven't lost more games. Iguess getting DT Albert Haynesworth wasn't so bad after all. But Haynesworth may no play due to an ankle injury. He didn't play agaist Dallas and the defense still had a stellar game. They'll be tested again this week.

Eagles: Is it just me or does it feel like the Eagles still lack something? I can't put my finger on it. They have a good passing game (12th), a decent running attack (18th, could be better) and they can score (7th). What's missing? The versatility of RB Brian Westbrook, that's what. He does have a knack for getting dinged but in the last game against Washington, he suffered a concussion. In Philly's game against the Chargers, he had another. We all know rookie LeSean McCoy can run, but the jury's still out on his receving skills. QB Donovan McNabb has been giving McCoy a chance to prove his worth.

The Philly defense? Banged up. It's been that way since traning camp. How many different linebacker combinations have the Eagles had this year? Let me get my calculator. The secondary has been hit, too. Yet, the Eagles are ranked 8th overall. Smoke and mirrors...smoke and mirrors.

Seattle (3-7) @ St. Louis (1-9)

Seahawks: The health of RB Julius Jones (lung) is a main issue for Seattle. He will be a game-time decision of head coach Jim Mora. Despite ranking last in rushing, Jones is a valuable member of the Seahawks offense. Even when it appears that you can't run, Jones is a good enough back to keep opposing defenses honest. That's where QB Matthew Hasselbeck, WRs Nate Burleson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and TE John Carlson (left) have to come into play. If Jones or RB Justin Forsett can run a bit, the passing attack could have a field day against a porous Rams defense.

The Seahawks defense shutout the Rams in week 1. That was a long time ago. The highest that Seattle rates in any category is 16th against the run. That's mediocre at best. And the Rams have #39 in their backfield. It's no secret. Stop RB Steven Jackson and you stop the Rams.

Rams: QB Kyle Boller takes over for Marc Bulger who will miss the game with a knee injury. That may be a good thing as no one has Boller on tape as a member of the Rams. You can look for a couple of things from his days in Baltimore, but you may not find much since Boller hasn't played a regular season NFL game since December 2007. The Rams have a major concern with RB Steven Jackson's back. He hasn't practiced all week. But if he plays, you're getting a show.

It's hard enought to win if you can't score. It's even harder to win when you can't stop the opponent. And the Rams defense can't stop anyone. Only twice this year has the defense held an opponent under 21 points (Washington - 9, week 2; Detroit - 10, week 8). And they have allowed over 30 points on four occassions (Green Bay - 36, week 3; San Francisco - 35, week 4; Minnesota - 38, week 5 and Indianapolis - 42, week 7). The y did "limit" New Orleans to 28, but the Rams gave the Saints a scare as theydid last week against Arizona. This unit just might be coming around a bit.

Carolina (4-6) @ New York Jets (4-6)

Panthers: As has been the case over the last few weeks, RB Johnathan Stewart and his Achilles are listed as questionable. Having a couple of extra days of rest will only aid Stewart. And the Panthers have been using him wisely. He only has two games where he's rushed the ball more than 15 times. Easy to do when you also have RB DeAngelo Williams and his almost 1,000 yards and 7 TD. With QB Jake Delhomme starting to show a bit more ball security, the Panthers are almost two dimensional. I said almost. But to Jake's credit, he's only committed 2 turnovers over the last 4 games (1 INT and 1 lost fumble). It can give you a bit of a pause.

The big question for this game will be this: Can the Panthers 26th rated run defense stop Jets RBs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene? Giving up almost 131 yards a game will test you. The fact that Carolina is 4th against the pass may be why teams are willing to try and shove the ball down their throats. If Carolina can contain the Jets running backs, it could be a critical "W".

Jets: I see a difference in the Jets. The swagger they had through the first three games is gone. In fact, it's really gone. The league didn't take long to get to rookie QB Mark Sanchez(right). During those first three gmes, 4 TD and 2 INT. Since then, 6 TD and 14 INT. Once you're on film, you're done unless new wrinkles are used. If not for the running game (2nd), the Jets would be worse then 4-6. In four of the Jets six losses, New York has lost those four by a total of 14 points.

The defense is still a good unit (5th overall). Sanchez is not fully to blame as the Jets defense has surrendered 4th quarter leads in all four of their close losses. NT Kris Jenkins' loss is still reverberating through the D. S Kerry Rhodes has been benched and S Jim Leonhard is nicked. The defense has to recover its swagger, too. Stopping the Panthers and the 2nd ranked ground game will go a long way to getting a bit of that swwagger back.

Someone please pass Sanchez the mustard...

Cleveland (1-9) @ Cincinnati (7-3)

Browns: Was last week's 37 point, 439 yard effort a mirage? Most likely since it came at the hands of the Lions. Despite the loss, QB Brady Quinn showed a bit a maturity. Now, can he do it for consecutive weeks? Cleveland hopes so. The 31st ranked offense will have to produce against the Bengals or their visit to Cincy will be extremely unpleasant. The main concern will be keeping Quinn upright as the Bengals bring in one of the league's best pass rushes.

But if you're going to crack on the Browns offense, you could go even a step further with the defense. And a coupe of valuable members are questionable for Sunday. DT Shaun Rogers (ankle) and LB David Bowens (knee)have been lmited in practice all week. Rogers is can stuff any play and Bowens is so familiar with the scheme. If either of them cannot go, a void in the defense will be created and exploited by the Bengals offense.

Bengals: Still gettng no respect. You're not going to when you lose to the Raiders. The Browns are exactly what the Bengals need. Well, getting RB Cedric Benson would be exactly what they need, but he's been very limited with his hip injury. RB Bernard Scott did have 100+ yards last week, but 61 of his 119 yards came on one play. Does that matter considering the Browns are 29th against the run? It does. Benson is a punishing back where as Scott is a speed back.

Maybe this is the week QB Carson Palmer (left) has his '09 breakout game. We all know what he's capable of, but with the running game being as efficient as it's been, Palmer hasn't had to do a whole lot. But the offense must play a whole game and not just a half.

Ah. Mike Zimmer's defense. It's getting a lot of praise this year. And it's justified. 10th overall (12th last year) and 2nd against the run. The pass D is only 20th, but opposing QBs only have a 77.5 passer rating against them (8th best). You have no choice but try the pass since Cincy refuses to yield yardage on the ground. This might be the most complete Bengals team in 20 years.

Indianapolis (10-0) @ Houston (5-5)

Colts: Sure they've sweated their last four wins (4 over San Francisco, 3 over Houston, 1 over New England and 2 over Baltimore), but when #18 is your QB, he's better than Allstate. Hard to beleive Indy is 10-0 with all their injuries. Just check out their depth chart here. See what I mean. While you're at it, take a peek at their injury report. 14 of 22 starters are nursing some form of an injury. Yet, Peyton and his gang are continuing to play well enough to win. If you're a Colts fan, those narrow victories could be a sign that the injuries are starting to catch up to them.

And those injuries are no more glaring than the defensive side. How many defensive players have been placed on IR? Too many if you're defensive coordinator Larry Coyer. But just like the offense, Coyer's defense survives. How's 15.7 points a game grab you? Best in the NFL. They will bend but not break. 15th in total yards allowed, 18th against the pass and 12th against the run. Oh, you'll get yardage, but you might have to settle for 3 instead of 6.

Texans: Is there any chance that K Kris Brown (left) could have a bigger target on him than he does now? After missing FGs in consecutive weeks that would have put the Texans into overtime, Brown has avoided receiving the "goat" tag. You need a kicker with confidence. Just ask Bill Belichick and the Pats when they were winning Super Bowls because of Adma Vinatieri. No, no, no. Brown's not even in that class, but you have to begin somewhere. He really can't go any lower, can he?

Houston's explosive offense hasnt been so explosive in their last two games only scoring 34 points total. The absence of a rushing game has been a constant all year. RB Steve Slaton is only averaging 38 yards a game. The Texans as a team averages a meek 87.4 yards, 30th in the league. The rush must get going because we all know what Houston brings from a passing perspective.

And the defense has been improving, too. At one time, Houston was the league's worst against the run. Now, 22nd. One reason has been the constant improving of rookie LB Brian Cushing. Add him with DeMeco Ryans and Zac Diles, and you have one of the league's best young LB units, if not the best. Ryans is the "old man" being in his fourth season. These guys have the potential to be scary good. This unit will determine the game's outcome.