NFL Week 13 - Early Games, Part I

With ten (count 'em, ten) games on tap for 1:00 starts, we'll be breaking up those previews into two posts. Part II will be out tomorrow.

We have three games with major playoff implications in Part I.

St. Louis (1-10) @ Chicago (4-7)

Playoff Excitement Meter, or PEM, Raing (out of 5): -2; neither team has any shot. The Rams could yet again draft in the top 3.

Rams: If St. Louis wants any chance to win, QB Kyle Boller must have a good game. If the offense can have balance and relieve pressure off RB Steven Jackson, the better off things will be. Quietly, Jackson has emerged as the NFC's leading rusher. Boller must also eliminate any mistakes as his two INT last week sealed the Rams fate. Protecting Boller will allow him time and WR Donnie Avery has started to show some consistancy over the last three games.

The Rams defense has been consistant. Well, consistantly bad. Defensive coordinator Ken Flajole has to love seeing the Bers offense. Two main goals for the Rams D: Stop RB Matt Forte (the Rams are 28th in stopping the run) and put a lot of pressure on QB Jay Cutler. We've seen how Cutler deals with pressure.

Bears: This game could be the "make or break" game for head coach Lovie Smith. If the Bears lose to the lowly Rams, Lovie could be out the door at season's end. The fact that QB Jay Cutler and RB Matt Forte are having such poor seasons adds to the ever growing pressure on Smith. Cutler and Forte are the offensive keys. Being the NFL's worst rushing team is inexcusable in Chicago. Oh, the offensive line must block. That's not been a positive all season either, leading to pressure on offensive coordinator Ron Turner.

Smith has been calling the defensive plays and the results have not been pleasurable. In fact, the Bears rank 18th overall. Not a stat the Bears fans like seeing. They're mediocre average the pass (14th) and mediocre against the run (24th). But it's easy for the Bears defense. Stop Rams RB Steven Jackson. Make QB Kyle Boller beat you.

New Orleans (11-0) @ Washington (3-8)

PEM: 2; only because the Saints are undefeated and must hold off the Vikings for the #1 seed in the NFC.

Saints: This is the true definition of a trap game. The Saints are coming off a franchise defining win over the Patriots. A short work week. An opponent that's viewed as not very good. QB Drew Brees had a perfect QB rating on Monday night. One thing is different in this game for New Orleans. They must keep winning because the Minnesota Vikings are right on their heels for the NFC's #1 seed. That might be exactly what the Saints need...pressure. And the #2 ranked passing defense. This year, New Orleans has a running game and this week, Reggie Bush should be in the mix.

Saints defensive coodinator Gregg Williams returns to Washington. Williams was interviewed for the '07 opening, but Jim Zorn was selected and Williams went to Louisiana. I think his choice was a good one. And he would love nothing more than to see his improved defense smash the organization that looked over him. Ah, revenge!

Redskins: Another week, another game without RB Clinton Portis. It's not as bad as you think. RB Rock Cartwright has done a decent job. Philly did contain him last week and the Saints can be had for yardage despite what I said earlier.You just got to hit them at the right time because New Orleans lives off of turnovers. I hope QB Jason Campbell read that. Take care of the ball. Establish the run. Keep Brees & Co. off the field.

While the Redskins are proficient against the pass, they lack in defending the run (25th). Even though Washington's injury report in "clean", there are banged up. If we learned one thing in watching the Saints last week, Drew Brees was way too comfortable in the pocket. DL Albert Haynesworth will have to be the main "disruptor" of that pocket.

Philadelphia (7-4) @ Atlanta (6-5)

PEM: 3; If Atlanta loses, the season is in serious jeopardy. Eagles are the current #6 seed in the NFC.

Eagles: Michael Vick returns to Atlanta. It'd really be something if Vick were a contribtor, but he isn't. WR DeSean Jackson and RB Brian Westbrook are out after suffering concussions. The Eagles have done well without Westbrook, but losing Jackson is a different story. WR Jeremy Maclin must fill the void lef by Jackson's absence. Some of that load could fall to RB LeSean McCoy and the Eagles rush. McCoy was also used a bit more in the passing game last week. And we know the Eagles love to run screens. The Falcons aren't exactly a feared defense, so look for Philly to really mix up the play calling.

The only thing the Eagles don't do well is keep opponents out of the endzone. They're 9th v. the pass, 8th v. the run and 9th oveall. But they're in the middle (16th) in points allowed. The Redskins, yes, the Redskins, put up 24 last week. Either turnovers occur deep in their own territory or teams are returing punts and/or kickoffs well. Or both..

Falcons: RB Michael Turner misses another game. After an explosive '08, Turner has been limited the past month due to a bum ankle. With RB Jerious Norwood back in action, the running game may not be as bad as you think. Norwood is almost every bit as explosive as Turner. But Atlanta will have to do it with Chris Redman, not Matt Ryan, at QB. Ryan suffered a turf toe in last week's game and was almost immediately ruled out for this week after the game. Redman led the Falcons to a win over Tampa Bay. The Eagles aren't exactly the Bucs.

I remember before this season even began and a lot of "experts" were raving about the Falcons defense. 27th overall, 27th against the pass, 23rd against the run and 19th in scoring defense. Not a defense that you really want on th field to preserve a lead, especially against Philly. Even with Jackson and Westbrook out, you still have McCoy, Maclin and TE Brent Celek. Sure, the options are more lmited, but all three of these guys can play.

New England (7-4) @ Miami (5-6)

PEM: 3.5; Miami needs this one to even think about postseason, plus it's a divisional game aginst the hated Pats. New England is #4 in the AFC and leads the AFC East by 2 games.

Patriots: Did we see the Pats get thoroughly undressed on Monday night or what? Now, they play a division game on a short week after basically being humiliated. Belichick pulled the #1 offense with five minutes left. The offense sputtered. The defense was completely exposed. QB Tom Brady seldom looked comfy on the field. I think we may have a blueprint on how to get to the Pats.

But we all know Bill Belichick is the master of adjustments. And New England has a ton to make. The short passing game was non-existant. The only plus was RB Laurence Maroney who scored both TD.

Dolphins: What happened in Buffalo? If you just saw the score, you might think the Fins got blown out. Not true at all. In fact, Miami led 14-7 going into the 4th quarter. QB Chad Henne threw 3 INT in the last 3:35 of the game. Buffalo scored 14 points and ran out the clock with those three turnovers. And Henne will now face a very determined defense. Good luck there, especailly since RB Ronnie Brown's not playing.

The last time Miami played New England, the Dolphins allowed 432 yards. And just like the D, the O has much to prove. Again, good luck.

Tennessee (5-6) @ Indianapolis (11-0)

PEM: 4; The Titans are the NFL's hottest team and face a must win. The Colts are unbeaten and have already cliched teh AFC South and are 3 games clear of the #2 seed.

Titans: What a combo the Titans have in RB Chris Johnson and QB Vince Young. Now rookie WR Kenny Britt seems to be on the same page, and the Titans are becoming more dangerous on offense. Young has shown maturity that none of us have ever seen. Well, with Johnson getting about 150 yards a game, who wouldn't be able to have decent games. VY better tighten his chinstrap. Dwight Freeney's back this week.

But a lot of people are overlooking the Titans defense. It's not what is was last year, but Tennessee has been improving every week since the 59-0 thumping at the hands of New England. Since then, the defense has  only allowed more than 20 points once (27 to San Francisco in week 9). Butlook at those other four: Jacksonville (#6 seed in AFC), Buffalo, Houston (missed a last second FG to send game into OT) and Arizona (minus QB Kurt Warner). Many are not impressed with the Titans run of five straight. I'm a bit pessimistic myself. Win this game, and I'll be a believer.

Colts: Okay. The Colts have to start playing 60 minutes and stop giving teams early double-digit leads. It will catch up to them. And the Titans might not let Indy off the hook like their last five oppoenents have. I can't believe I'm going to say this, but QB Peyton Manning must avoid turnovers. I know, I never thought I would have a critical word abot Manning. It's simple. If Indy can control the clock, that will curtail RB Chris Johnson's chances of becoming a game changer.

DE Dwight Freeney should play. Freeney sat last week, and once the Colts defense adapted to his absence, they controlled the line of scrimmage. With both Freeney and DE Robert Mathis on the field, opponents have even more work to do. But the interior of the D line must compress the pocket when Tennessee is in passing situations. Freeney and Mathis could have good days if a push up the middle develops. Titans QB Vince Young is becoming more patient in the pocket and making him go just a bit outside could provide sack and/or hit oppotunities for the ends.

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