NFL Week 13 Preview - Early Games, Part II

Here's the second part of the early games. If you didn't catch the first part, here it is.

Tampa Bay (1-10) @ Carolina (4-7)

Playoff Excitement Meter, or PEM: a big fat 0. The Panthers have less than a glimmer. They need way too much help.

Buccaneers: In the four games that rookie QB Josh Freeman has started, the Bucs are 1-3. They could be 3-1. A Dolphins FG with 10 seconds left and a Falcons TD with 26 seconds remaining are all that has kept Tampa Bay from possibly being 3-8 instead of 1-10. All this team needs to do is to learn how to win. Freeman is a small piece of that. A running game would help. With the exception of the opening game of the season, the Bucs haven't produced the game's leading rusher from the running back position (Cadillac Williams with 97 yards v. Dallas).

Well, the defense shares the blame in all of that, too. They are inept against the run (30th) and are next to last in points allowed (28.5 a game). The Bucs might be catching the Panthers at the right time. QB Jake Delhomme (finger) will not be playig anf RB DeAngelo WIlliams (ankle) is questionable. One can oly hope.

Panthers: QB Jake Delhomme (finger) will give way to Matt Moore. RB DeAngelo WIlliams has a sprined ankle that may prevent him from playing. RB Johnathan Stewart is still having a problem with his Achilles, but he will play. The issue is the passing offense (27th) because the Panthers sure can rush (4th). Even with the great running tandem of Williams and Stewart, Carolina is averaging below 30:00 in time of possession. That's weird. Of the 8 TD passes, 4 are to WR Steve Smith. The other 4 are 2 to TE Dante Rosario and 2 to TE Jeff King. And whatever you do, take care of the ball. The Panthers have a miserable -9 turnover ratio.

It's also weird that a team that's so prolific in rushing the ball can't stop the run. Carolina is 26th against the run, but 3rd against the pass. Bucs QB Josh Freeman will take a sack (9 in 4 starts) and he can throw a pick (5 INT in 4 starts). But that may not matter if the Panthers can't stop the Bucs woeful running game. If Carolina stops the run, they force Tampa Bay into trying to win with the rookie QB and all may end well for the Panthers.

Detroit (2-9) @ Cincinnati (8-3)

PEM: 1; Cincy currently holds the all important #2 seed in the AFC. They want to keep it that way.

Lions: The extra time to rest the ailing QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson was severely needed. So exactly what can the Lions offense do to win this game? First, Stafford cannot commit any turnovers. The Bengals are opportunistic and will convert those into points. Seond, run the ball. Keep the Bengals and the 3rd ranked rushing defense honest. RB Kevin Smith won't blow you away with his speed, but he can pound the ball and wear down a somewhat depleted D line. Finally, find Johnson. With the loss of TE Brandon Pettigrew for the season, Johnson will be looked at to do just a bit more.

No one permits more yardage or points that Detroit. They also possess the NFL's worst passing defense. Now, the Lions secondary must find a way to contain Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco. And don't let the fact that Lions are decent against the run (19th) fool you. Teams don't run that much on them because they can't stop the pass. The news doesn't get any better as the Bengals welcome back RB Cedric Benson.

Bengals: If Cincy learned one thing a couple of weeks ago against the Raiders is that they cannot take the Lions lightly. I have a feeling that the return of RB Cedric Benson might eliminate some of that. RB Bernard Scott, who filled in nicely for Benson, is doubtful with a toe issue. No problem. RB Larry Johnson toted the rock for over 100 yards against the Cleveland Browns last week. Seeing the Lions ad teh league's worst passing defense must bring a smile to QB Carson Palmer and WR Chad Ochocinco. The passing game has struggled lately and the Lions might be exactly what the Bengals need to get it back on track.

You know there's a rookie QB on the other side. He has 12 TD and 18 INT. You have the #3 rush defense. You're 10th in sacks and 7th in INT. I think you know where this is going. But Cincy has a slight issue. DT Domata Peko is out with a knee injury. Peko and fellow DT Johnathan Fanene are the main cogs on the D line. The rotation will be shortened and that could mean the possibility of the D line tiring late in the game. One last thing. No one gives up less points that the Bengals. It's true. Ciny is 6th overall in D and allow only 15.8 points a game.

Denver (7-4) @ Kansas City (3-8)

PEM: 2, KC's out and the Broncos are currently #5 in the AFC. Denver has problems in KC, too.

Broncos: Arrowhead is a house of horrors for Denver. Even in the Elway years, the Broncos normally struggled in Kansas City. QB Kyle Orton will get his first taste of Arrowhead from an AFC West view. Something I find odd is that not many people are talking of WR Brandon Mashall and a Pro Bowl. After a well publicized conflict during the preseason that saw Marshall suspended, all he's done is put up excellent numbers. And Denver doesn't exactly have a QB that can fling it any time he wants. And Denver doesn't really run the ball well either. And tehy have an average time of possession of less than 30:00. So that should tell you two things. Denver doesn't turn the ball over (a +2 in turnover ratio) and they have a good defense.

The defense. Despite losing four in a row until a win last Thanksgiving night, Denver still has the 5th ranked defense. You can't score on them (5th in points allowed) and you can't pass on them (5th), but you might find a crease for your running game (17th). If you try to pass, be aware of where #92 is. Tat's Elvis Dumervil and he leads teh NFL in sacks with 14.

Chiefs: RB Kolby Smith will be sitting this one out, so RB Jamaal Charles is "the guy". But all hope is notlost. Denver is mediocre against the run. Wait. Kansas City is only 22nd in rushing. They're even worse pasing (26th). QB Matt Cassel has had a decent season, 13 TD and 7 INT. What's hurting them is that WR Dwayne Bowe, KC's leading receiver, is serving his third game of his four game suspension for violating the NFL's drug policy. Enter WR Chris Chambers. In Chambers' four games, he has 17 catches for 319 yards and 3 TD. He has played half the games of Bowe, but has half the stats, so the production is there. Except in TD. Bowe has 4 and Chambers has 3.

Waht can you say about KC's defense? Nothing really good. 30th overall, 30th against the pass, 27th against the rush and 28th in points allowed. Only 14 sacks and 7 INT doesn't help either. But the Broncos offense isn't exactly a machine that can't be stopped. KC will have its chances against this offense, and they better make th best of them. Just contain WR Brandon Marshall, Denver's #1. KC Has problems covering opponents #1 WR.

Oakland (3-8 @ Pittsburgh (6-5)

PEM: 2.5; The Steelers are on the outside looking in right now. This is a must win. Oakland...well...

Raiders: QB Bruce Gradkowski gave the Raiders a spark...for one week against Cincinnati. That spark fizzled against the Cowboys. The only thing Oakland can halfway do on offense is run with RBs Michael Bush, Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden. They're 20th in the league. All bets are off when they pass (32nd, worst in the NFL). I just remembered. Didn't I see WR Darruis Heyward-Bey catch a TD?

What about that defense? Pro Bowl CB Nnamdi Asomugha has the answer. He says the D is too simple. Being 31st against the run means the Raiders will see a steady dose of Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall. But Oakland is a decent 17th defending the pass. There's a very slight glimmer o hope..the same Oakland had against the Eagles and the Bengals. They won those games.

Steelers: Is the drama over? WR Hines Ward's words generated more heat than Randy Orton at a WWE show. Now that it's all over, maybe Pittsburgh can get back to playing winning football. Three straight losses, including an OT loss to the Chiefs, had pushed the Steelers to third in he AFC North. They're not used to that view and a win against a bad Raiders team will revive hope.

QB Ben Roethlisberger should play. I said "should". S Troy Polamalu won't play.

For Pittsburgh, it's this easy: Shove R Rashard Mendenhall down the Raiders 31st rated run defense's throat. Protect Big Ben. And Ben...watch getting hit. Don't let Oakland have any momentum (see Philly and Cincy games against Oakland).

Houston (5-6) @ Jacksonville (6-5)

PEM: 3; A Texans loss is damaging. A Jags win wil keep them no worse than the AFC's #6 seed.

Texans: Are you wondering what's going on with the Texans? What I've seen from Houston the last three weeks is three games they should have won. Yes, even the two missed FG. I feel that if K Kris Brown makes those, Houston has all the momentum going into OT and they win. And they may not get another change to evolve into playoff contender if they cannot win this one.

The biggest issue has to be the running game. Houston can't run. And RB Steve Slaton (neck) may not go against the Jags. RB Chris Brown gets another shot. I'm curious as to why RB Ryan Moats hasn't been involved. He's not on the injury report. He's not suspended. Why isn't Gary Kubiak letting him have a shot?

If Houston is to win, DE Mario Williams will have to pressure Jags QB David Garrard into bad decisions. And Garrard did that at San Francisco last week. Andthere's that issue of a RB named Maurice Jones-Drew. Got to stop him, too.

Jaguars: Even at 6-5 and the #6 seed in the AFC, we can't be sure what to make of the Jags. One week they impress you, the next they dog you. RB Maurice Jones-Drew took over as the #1 and has not disappointed. The rest of the Jags O has. QB David Garrard has has a decent QB rating (85.1), but he only has 8 TD...and 6 of those are to WR Mike Sims-Walker. Being a bit more diverse on offense may help. And protecting Garrard. The Jags have allowed 30 sacks, 7th most.

The defense has been as inconsistent as the offense. Their tough against the run (10th), but 26th versus the pass. The lack of a pass rush could partially explain that. The Jags only have 10 sacks as a team, worst in the NFL. Having only 9 int (20th) won't make any opponent fear your secondary. The loss of CB Rashean Mathis hasn't helped in the INT department. He'll be out yet another week. That leaves a pair of rookies (Derek Cox and William Middleton) responsible for Texans WR Andre Johnson. Need I say more?

A look at the late games and the Monday Night clash between the Ravens and the Packers comes tomorrow for you. Enjoy your Saturday and all the college football games.

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