Friday, August 13, 2010

NFC South Primer

We stop off today in the NFC South, the home of the defending Super Bowl Champs New Orleans Saints.

FLOWERY BRANCH, GA - JULY 30: Michael Turner  of the Atlanta Falcons runs drills during opening day of training camp on July 30, 2010 at the Falcons Training Complex in Flowery Branch, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
A healthy Michael Turner could lead the
Falcons to the playoffs in 2010.
Atlanta Falcons
2009 record: 9-7, 2nd in division
Head coach: Mike Smith
Key Additions: CB Dunta Robinson
Key Losses: CB Tye Hill

1. What can we expect from RB Michael Turner in 2010?
Despite missing 5 games in '09, Turner, on the average, had better numbers than he had in his breakout season of '08. He averaged more yards per carry (4.9 in '09, 4.4 in '08) and he carried the ball less per game (16.2 in '90, 23.5 in '08). Part of the reason he carried it less was due to his injuries. Turner will be back to his regular self in 2010, but I anticipate the carries to be moderated unless the offense realized that the train needs to keep rolling. We won't see the 376 carries he had on '08. If Turner gets 300 carries to go along with that 4.9 yards per, he'll have 1,470. What more could Matt Ryan ask for?

2. Will this defense ever cease it's "bend, but don't break" label?
Seems to be their trend over the last couple of seasons. In 2009, the Falcons were 14th in scoring defense (20.3 points allowed), 10th against the rush and 28th versus the pass. You know where to hit them, through the air. The pass rush will play a prominent role and being a T26 last year with 28 sacks will have to increase. Signing Robinson is an immediate upgrade over Hill at corner and that should provide for better coverage in the secondary.

3. Is Atlanta a playoff team?
They are, but there have to be a couple of things that fall the right way for them. QB Matt Ryan must improve his completion percentage (58.3%) and limit his picks (14). Also, the Falcons first four games aren't close to being gimmies either (@ Pittsburgh, Arizona, @ New Orleans, San Francisco). If Atlanta can emerge from those first four games at 3-1, the ball will be rolling.

The receiving corps must step up in 2010, too.

July 29, 2010 - Spartanburg, South Carolina, United States - 29July2010: Carolina Panther quarterback Matt Moore.
If Moore starts every game in 2010, that
means the Panthers are winning.
Carolina Panthers
2009 record: 8-8, 3rd in division
Head coach: John Fox
Key Additions: DT Rahim Brock
Key Losses: DE Julius Peppers, LB Na'il Diggs

1. Who starts at quarterback, Moore or Clausen?
Moore, no doubt. He was 3-1 down the stretch last season and Moore is a tall, strong QB. But Clausen will push him and Jimmy looked good in last night's preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens. Moore is 1, Clausen is 2. The only thing the doesn't set well with the Panthers QB situation is that there is no player with more then 4 years of experience (Moore). That could be troubling.

2. Can any other DE fill the shoes of the departed Peppers?
While Peppers brought great stats, Peppers didn't always bring the intensity and that has been a knock on him. Everette Brown will have to come forward and prove that he really was worthy of dealing a first round pick to draft him. (That's why Carolina didn't have a 1st round pick in the last draft). Drafting Eric Norwood from South Carolina could be as solid a 4th round pick as you will find. But filling Peppers shoes will take more than one season.

3. Is Fox on the hot seat?
He shouldn't be. Fox is as professional a coach as you will find, but we all know it comes down to wins and losses and the Panthers loss 8 last year. Even with a younger roster, I think they must go 9-7 to stave off any talk.

One big thing to help the Panthers will be the return of T Jeff Otah for the season opener.

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees looks for a pass against the New England Patriots in the first quarter of their NFL pre-season football game in Foxborough, Massachusetts August 12, 2010.  REUTERS/Brian Snyder  (UNITED STATES - Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
Repeating is never an easy chore, but with
Brees at the helm, there's a good chance.
New Orleans Saints
2009 record: 13-3, 1st in division
Head coach: Sean Payton
Key Additions: DE Alex Brown, FB Jason McKie
Key Losses: T Jammal Brown, LB Scott Fujita, RB Mike Bell

1. Repeat?
Always a possibility, but the Saints are suffering the "lack of respect" syndrome. They haven't been one of your so-called perennial powers, so they don't get the benefit of the doubt. This team can repeat, but will find roadblocks along the way in their schedule. Outside of their divisional games, they travel to San Francisco (week 2), Dallas (week 12)Cincinnati (week 13) and Baltimore (week 15). Four pretty tough road affairs. The games in Cincy and Baltimore could be interesting since they are in December.

2. Will NO suffer the dreaded Super Bowl hangover?
It is New Orleans, so the odds of such a hangover are greater, but I'm bucking that. The Saints aren't just a football team. They are the city and that could propel them into an elite team. I stress, could.

3. Is Drew Brees the best QB in the NFL?
Get your stones ready...no. I believe that Indy's Peyton Manning (I know the Saints beat the Colts in the SB) and Aaron Rodgers are better, but there's no question that Brees is worthy of being in the conversation. I slot Brees behind the other two I mentioned.

People will look at the Saints D and decide that's the weak link.

TAMPA, FL - JULY 31: Quarterback Josh Freeman  of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throws a pass during training camp at One Buccaneer Place on July 31, 2010 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)
Freeman's the #1 QB in Tampa.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2209 record: 3-13, 4th in division
Head coach: Raheem Morris
Key Additions: S Sean Jones
Key Losses: WR Antonio Bryant, S Will Allen, DT Chris Hovan

1. I'm a Bucs fan, any hope for 2010?
If you mean a winning season, I must honestly answer no. But if you're looking for a team that's possibly a couple of years away, yes. I wasn't a fan of selecting QB Josh Freeman in the first round in the 2009 draft and maybe I'll be proven wrong there. I like the draft the Bucs had this year. Not only because they landed DT Gerald McCoy, but they also got DT Brian Price, WR Arrelious Benn, CB Myron Lewis and WR Mike Williams. I like all of these guys. The future is brightening.

2. You mentioned Freeman. Is he an NFL QB?
He was thrown to the wolves last season and as I stated I didn't think he was worth of being a first round selection. To me, the jury's still out. He started the last nine games and had only 2 games where he had a completion percentage over 60% and threw more TD than INT (Atlanta and Seattle). Maybe I was expecting too much.

3. Will the defense be improved in 2010?
The Bucs added McCoy and Price. That's good. actually, that's very good. That already gives the Bucs a solid rotation at the position. The corners are solid with Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib. The play from the linebackers will determine how good this defensive unit can be.

The Bucs should improve on the 3-13, but not by that much.

1. New Orleans. Can't help but think these guys aren't getting enough respect.
2. Atlanta. They will be on the Saints heels.
3. Carolina. Moore could be starting QB all season.
4. Tampa Bay. Better days really are ahead.

If this division has taught us anything, it's to expect the unexpected. maybe I should totally flop my prediction.

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