Super Bowl XLV: Yet Another Prediction...and other Stories

Leading up to the big game, there have been five prevailing storylines emerge.

1. The weather.
Hard to believe that it's been so atrocious down in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. People injured from ice falling off the top of the stadium. Airports temporarily shutdown due to ice on the runways. It's made travel an extreme headache. And those that have hosted radio and/or TV spots during the time there have experienced the adverse conditions.

I'd still rather be there in the cold than not at all.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

2. The saga of a team picture.
The Green Bay Packers were scheduled to have their team picture taken on Tuesday of this past week, media day. The issue became those players that were on IR for Green Bay would not be arriving until Thursday. Some Packers players voiced their frustration over the matter via Twitter (doesn't everybody these days?).

Packers captains Charles Woodson and Aaron Rodgers addressed the matter with head coach Mike McCarthy. The Packers had the taking of the pic moved to Friday to include those players.

But the issue wasn't so quickly over. Someone asked Rodgers of his take (via NFL.com):

"I'll say this, I was on IR back in 2006 and I chose to stick around and finish out the season with my guys and be here every game. Some of those guys didn't," Rodgers said. "Some of the guys who were injured, they still are part of this team, but they didn't choose to stick around."

And he's right. It's like the family member that you really won't want to be in the family pic, but you give in because he/she "is family".

3. Ben and the piano bar.
Much was made when a TMZ report surfaced that Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and some of his teammates went out to dinner and then made way to a piano bar. The report also stated that Big Ben missed the midnight curfew. That was quickly blown off by Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin (via Boston Herald):

“I am not concerned about that one iota,” Tomlin said when asked about the TMZ report. “It’s normal for guys to eat dinner, believe it or not, every now and then during the course of the week leading up to a game. So, this week is no different than any other.

“I understand that some things may be reported and viewed differently, but that’s not our concern, really. During the course of the season on a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, or what have you, believe it or not, guys live lives.”

Case closed. Of course, there are those thast suggested that Roethlisberger not even go out due to his off-field occurrences. That's a load of crap. As Tomlin said, they have lives.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

4. Maurkice Pouncey.
Pouncey was ruled out for playing today due to a high left ankle sprain he suffered against the New York Jets in the AFC Championship. Ponucey was placed on IR and will not even be available for the game. So who would step in to replace the rookie Pro Bowler?

Signs were pointing to Doug Legursky, the same who replaced Pouncey in the Jets game. But I heard an interesting take on this just a couple of hours ago.

Trevor Pryce was on ESPN's First Take and was asked about Legursky and the potential of issues with Packer NT B.J. Raji. Pryce thought that Legursky might not even be the guy to snap the ball. He suggested that since there were two weeks to prepare, the Steelers could move a guard to play center. If that's the case, Legursky would be playing guard, his natural position.

5. Aaron Rodgers.
Has nothing to do with his take on the team pic. He's the hottest commodity in the NFL right now. He has earned it. If the Packers can win today, Brett Favre, still revered by some within the Packers fanbase, will become a smaller dot in the rear view mirror.

So...on with my outlook and prediction for the game.

For Pittsburgh, it's not too hard to figure what they want to do offensively, shove RB Rashard Mendenhall down the Packers collective throat to alleviate pressure on Roethlisberger. If the running game can get going, life will be easier on what is viewed as a suspect offensive line. That could leave bigger holes in the defense when it comes to the pass. Maybe a couple of screens will slow that pass rush.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

If that happens, keep an eye on Mike Wallace, the one guy who can get behind the Packers defensive backfield. And they won't be able to catch him if he does get behind them. A good ground game can also lead to Hines Ward and Heath Miller being able to work underneath. Then, either that patented Steelers trick play or just a straight out deep throw to Wallace.

But the Packers defensive is somewhat of a mirror image of the Steelers defense. Nice d-line play, a good set of linebackers and a somewhat underrated secondary (yes, even with Woodson). But look for Packers defensive coordinator to toss in maybe a wrinkle or two. Not too much though.

Two guys the Steelers will keep their eyes on are Woodson, who will blitz, and Clay Matthews. Everyone knows where Raji will be positioned. Matthews and Woodson are game changers. The question will be how effective they are in attacking Big Ben who's one tough guy to bring down.

For Green Bay, it's not complicated either, ride the wave of Rodgers. But don't forget the "sudden" involvement of the running game with RB James Starks. That ground attack has emerged as a viable one. While the overall numbers may not appear staggering, the dedication to the rush is.

Look at the Indianapolis Colts. Doesn't matter they couldn't run most of the season, they still used play action to set up the passing game. Rodgers can do the same. There is a problem. The Steelers have the best running defense in the game. Pittsburgh can easily make Green Bay's offense one dimensional. They usually do.

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

That might fit right into the Packers gameplan. And that makes Greg Jennings, Donald Driver (if he is a go), James Jones and Jordy Nelson all the more important. They can not afford a single drop. But then the pressure will fall on the Packers offensive line. While deemed as not a very good line at times last season and a little bit this season, they have gelled and kept Rodgers a little cleaner this season save a couple of concussions.

The most pivotal point may be the location, Jerry's Playpen. It's a fast track and the team that utilizes its speed the best will come out as the winner. That would seem to favor the Packers in this case.

The Steelers team speed seems to be related only to Wallace. That's a mistake. While Mendenhall is viewed as a power runner, he does has speed. If he gets loose on the Packers linebackers and secondary, it will a Steelers win. Look what he did in week one against the Atlanta Falcons. He showed speed. Look what he did in the AFC Championship against the Jets. He showed power.

My key is Mendenhall. And this "fast track" does play into his running style.

Yes, I'm in the minority here (I think) as I like the Steelers, 24-21.