Wednesday, November 25, 2009

NFL Week 12 - Thanksgiving Day Games


Since tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day, I would like to take this opportunity to wish each of you a Happy Thanksgiving. I deeply appreciate those that have been with me for these short few months. And I hope your holiday week is a pleasant one.

The games...we have our two traditional Thanksgiving hosts in Detroit and Dallas. Denver will be hosting the evening game.

All games have important playoff ramifications attached to them. So if you're saying they need to take the Thanksgiving Day game away from Detroit, guess again. It's not going to happen.

Green Bay (6-4) @ Detroit (2-8)

Packers: The biggest point with the Packers is right now on the defensive side of the ball. Both CB Al Harris and LB Aaron Kampman are lost for the season. Kampman's loss can be filled with Clay Matthews or Brady Poppinga or Brandon Chillar or a combination of the three depending on situations. Losing Harris is a totally different issue. Not that Kampman won't be missed (a Pro-Bowler as a DE), but Harris, even at 34, is one of the NFL's best corners. The loss of Harris makes the health of CB Charles Woodson a much greater concern. Woodson was limited in practice,  so he will go.

The Packers offense had a bit of a revival against San Francisco last week. QB Aaron Rodgers had 344 yards passing. RB Ryan Grant had 129 yards rushing. WR Greg Jenning had 126 yards receiving. That exactly what ther Packers offense needed. Now, can they have those same numbers two games in a row. It is the Lions across the line, you know.

Lions vs. Browns Lions: In just his rookie season, QB Matthew Stafford (right) has already etched his name in Lions lore with his TD pass to TE Brandon Pettigrew to give the Lions their last second victory against Cleveland last week. The image of throwing that TD pass with a separated left shoulder will be a lasting image for the rest of this season. But with that, Stafford will most likely not be playing against Green Bay. Get ready, Daunte Culpepper. You're in! Wait...we didn't tell you. You might not have WR Calvin Johnson. He didn't practice on Tuesday. And the Lions need to get all the offense possible as the Packers shutout the Lions back in week 6.

But what can Detroit do to stop the Packers? We've seen that pressuring Aaron Rodgers isn't necessarily good. You may sack him (an NFL leading 43 times), but Rodgers can get back at you on the next play. Turnoves aren't a major part of Detroit's game: 7 INT and 7 fumble recoveries. If the Lions have any hope, they must force the Packers into tose turnoves. That may slow the offense down.

Oakland (3-7) @ Dallas (7-3)

Raiders: Could the Raiders pull off yet another one? Two of the three Raiders wins have come at the hands of playoff contending teams (Philadelphia and last week against Cincinnati). The Oakland O line kept QB Bruce Gradkowski's jersey clean last week as he was not sacked once. The Cowboys will provide a stiffer test. You can offset that by establishing the run with RBs Michael Bush, Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden. Even though that group only managed 92 yard lst week, the Raiders had 24 attempts. Sometimes, it's not the yards, but the attempts that wear a defense down. The real key to the Oakland O? TE Zach Miller can be a matchup nightmare.

The Raiders defense doesn't get enough credit. Sure, they're lousy against the run (30th) and they allow a lot of points (23.4), but they did shut down the Bengals passing game last week. They now get a shot at Cowboys QB Tony Romo. And the Raiders can get to the QB. DE Richard Seymour has made a marked improvement in attitude for the defense. If you pay attention, they're starting to look like the Raiders of old, in attitude at least.

Cowboys vs. Redskins Cowboys: 14 points in two games? True, but Dallas is 1-1 in those two. Huh? In their 17-7 loss to Green Bay, they made no effort to run. In the 7-6 win against Washington, they had 153 yards rushing. The Redskins have a good defense, too. QB Tony Romo (left) took a knee to his back last week and wasn't accurate with his passing after the injury. A short week won't help matters at all. The Raiders defense isn't as bad as some think either. The Cowboys must pound the ball with RBs Mation Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice.

The Cowboys will get after Raiders QB Bruce Gradkowski. No doubt about that. And the passing game is the Cowboys defensive weak link (20th). Despite the sacks (8th in the NFL with 25), the Cowboys corners are suspect and the defense, as a whole, produces very few turnovers (7 INT and 5 fumble recoveries). As we've seen in two of the Raiders wins, you let them stick around, they will beat you. The defense will be the determining factor.

New York Giants (6-4) @ Denver (6-4)

Giants: The G-Men got off the losing track last week and held off the Atlanta Falcons. Maybe winning a close one is exactly what the Giants needed. What they didn't need was a short week. RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are banged up and may be severly limited in playing time. As of today, Jacobs isn't on the team's injury report, but Bradshaw certainly is. And the Giants will need Jacobs against a defense that is starting to leak yardage. If Jacobs can get going, QB Eli Manning may have open passing lanes.

The Giants don't yield a lot of yards (2nd overall) but allow 23.5 points a game. What those stats tell me is that turnovers are leaving a short field for the defense or special teams aren't getting it done or both. LB Antonio Pierce will not be available for his second straight game. We've seen that Pierce is the defensive leader and his absence does create a void. The D line must step up and produce pressure on Broncos QB Kyle Orton. A question to ponder is how will the Giants corners deal with Broncos WR Brandon Marshall?

NFL: San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos Broncos: Talk about leaking oil. Win six, lose four. Could the Broncos start another six game winning steak? As I look at Denver's last six games, it will be rough. But a win against New York will help a strggling team. WR Brandon Marshall (right) and RB Knowshon Moreno were seen on the Denver sideline exchanging words during last week's thumping at the hands of the Chargers. Here's where head coach Josh McDaniels can use his "Book According to Belichick" and diffuse the situation. Having starting QB Kyle Orton will help.

This Broncos defense was once the top rated unit in the league. During the Broncos four game skid, they have fallen to 7th overall. People around the league have them figured out and it's up to defensive coordinator Mike Nolan needs to make the adjustments. The one constant is LB Elvis Dumervil. He leads the NFL with 12 sacks and will get to take on the vaunted Giants O line. Keep an eye on that.
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